The Correction in Nuclear Power Stocks Is Not Over, Just a Breather… “Visibility on New Orders Is Key”
Shinhan Investment Securities Report
U.S. DOE Announces $17.5 Billion Loan for Nuclear Power Supply Chain
Support for Advance Purchase of Long-Lead-Time Equipment for AP1000 Phase 10
“It’s Necessary to Confirm Participation Conditions, Not Just Order Confirmation, for Korean Companies”
U.S. Investment in the Nuclear Power Sector: SMRs Take Precedence Over Large-Scale Reactors
[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Analysts suggest that as the reconstruction of the U.S. nuclear power value chain gains momentum, it is time to assess the potential benefits for domestic nuclear power equipment manufacturers. With the U.S. government providing financial support for the advance purchase of long-lead-time equipment to accelerate the construction of large-scale nuclear power plants, analysts believe that nuclear power projects may move beyond mere rhetoric to the actual order placement stage. Han Seung-hoon, an analyst at Shinhan Investment Securities, maintained his “overweight” recommendation on the utilities sector on the 25th, describing it as “a phase where expectations are turning into reality.” He explained that while nuclear power stocks have recently undergone a correction due to concerns over rising interest rates and the absence of significant new developments, the U.S. policy direction toward expanding nuclear power and the trend toward supply chain reconstruction remain intact. (Chart: Shinhan Investment Securities) On the 23rd, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the “U.S. Nuclear Supply Chain Loan” program, worth $17.5 billion (approximately 26 trillion won). The program targets five eligible projects sponsored by utilities and energy companies. The structure supports the deployment of a total of 10 large-scale nuclear reactors—two Westinghouse AP1000 reactors per project. The key to this loan is not funding the entire construction cost but rather the advance purchase of long-lead-time equipment. Components such as reactor pressure vessels, steam generators, pressurizers, and large forgings have long manufacturing lead times and are prone to supply chain bottlenecks. If these materials are not secured on time, the overall nuclear power plant construction schedule will be delayed, and interest costs during construction will increase. One researcher interpreted this policy as “a measure by the U.S. to establish a supply chain capable of supporting the repeated construction of large-scale nuclear power plants.” The analysis suggests that repeatedly building 10 units of the same AP1000 reactor model will create a demand base that allows suppliers to invest in production facilities, personnel, and quality control systems, while also enabling learning effects throughout the design, procurement, and construction processes. However, this policy is a conditional loan commitment, not a confirmed loan disbursement. For each project, Westinghouse and its partners must first commit $500 million each—for a total of $1 billion per project—in equity capital before accessing DOE loan funds. They must also meet technical, legal, environmental, and financial conditions. Shinhan Investment Securities noted that, considering the U.S. government’s goal of breaking ground on 10 new large-scale nuclear power plants by 2030, orders for long-lead-time equipment could begin in earnest between the second half of this year and 2027, provided that key conditions are met and capital is invested in each project. Within the domestic nuclear power value chain, DOOSAN ENERBILITY(034020)is considered a top candidate for review. DOOSAN ENERBILITY possesses the capability to manufacture major nuclear power plant components, such as reactor pressure vessels and steam generators. The report analyzed that if orders for long-lead-time equipment for the AP1000 materialize, Korean manufacturers of major nuclear power plant components are likely to be considered as complementary suppliers. However, one analyst pointed out that rather than assuming “confirmed orders for Korean companies,” it is necessary to verify the proportion of U.S. domestic procurement, localization requirements, Westinghouse’s supplier selection process, and partner conditions for each project. Given that the stated rationale for U.S. policy is “rebuilding the U.S. nuclear supply chain,” the extent to which overseas companies can participate is expected to determine the actual magnitude of the benefits. Regarding investment in the U.S., the report placed greater emphasis on the potential for small modular reactors (SMRs) rather than large-scale nuclear power plants. This is because, while new power purchase demand and commercial contract structures for large-scale nuclear plants remain unclear, discussions on long-term power purchase agreements for SMRs are underway, primarily involving Big Tech companies and utilities. The report concluded that if the South Korean government’s investment in the U.S. extends to the nuclear power sector, SMRs are more likely to be chosen over large-scale nuclear power plants. In particular, it analyzed that SMR companies that have established cooperative relationships with South Korean firms—such as NuScale Power, X-Energy, and TerraPower—could be given priority consideration. DOOSAN ENERBILITY has established partnerships with NuScale Power, X-Energy, and TerraPower, while SAMSUNG C&T CORPORATION, HyundaiEngineering&Construction, DL E&C CO., LTD., and SK Group have also built collaborative networks with their respective SMR companies. Regarding the recent weakness in nuclear power stocks, the report interpreted this not as a deterioration of the investment narrative but as a multiple-related burden. The nuclear power industry involves long construction periods and extended payback periods, making it sensitive to changes in discount rates and interest expenses incurred during construction. Rising interest rates are a factor that limits valuation expansion in the short term. One analyst stated, “We are awaiting concrete project developments, such as the finalization of future investments in the U.S., momentum from Team Korea’s large-scale nuclear power plant orders in Vietnam and elsewhere, the announcement of partner utilities following the DOE’s loan policy, and orders for long-lead-time equipment.” The analyst added, “In a period of heightened valuation pressure, the importance of concrete project developments and visibility into order wins will increase.”
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