[Edaily Reporter KIM JUNG YOU ] Forecasts indicate that the domestic fashion industry, which had been holding its own through the first quarter, will once again face a decline in consumer spending this summer. Rising prices and the burden of living expenses are the main causes, and concerns are growing within the industry over whether this trend will continue into the second half of the year—the peak season.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy’s “2026 Fashion Consumption Survey Results” released on the 2nd, the Fashion Consumption Outlook Index (FCOI) for this summer’s season (June–August) stood at 99.5, marking a slight decline compared to the same period last year. This index quantifies the outlook for fashion product consumption; a reading above 100 indicates that expectations for increased consumption prevail, while a reading below 100 suggests that expectations for decreased consumption prevail.

In detail, the consumption outlook index for clothing stood at 99.7, for shoes at 99.5, and for bags and wallets at 99.1, indicating that a contraction in consumption was the prevailing outlook across all fashion categories. The primary reasons cited for this contraction in consumption outlook include financial strain due to rising prices and increased cost burdens associated with fashion products. By age group, the majority of respondents—with the exception of teenage girls—expected consumption to decline.

Previously, domestic fashion consumption had already shown a downward trend even during the spring season. According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, domestic fashion spending during the spring (March–May) totaled 24.8 trillion won, a 7.7% decrease compared to the same period last year. All categories—Namsung wear, women’s wear, casual wear, and outdoor wear—experienced a decline in purchases, with golf wear recording the sharpest drop (-16.0%). In terms of market share, casual wear (30.6%) and footwear (15.5%) accounted for the largest portions.

A fashion industry official stated, “Recently, we’ve seen a growing trend toward practical and everyday wear, rather than categories like formal wear or outdoor apparel,” adding, “This trend toward practical fashion consumption is likely to continue for some time, not only during the summer but also into the fall and winter (FW) season in the second half of the year.”

In the first quarter of this year, business conditions in the domestic fashion industry were generally favorable, with the exception of the outdoor sector. The so-called “Big 5” companies— SAMSUNG C&T CORPORATION(028260) ’s fashion division, and LF(093050) —led the industry, with growth rates reaching as high as triple digits, driving a rebound in profitability. This was largely due to improved consumer sentiment among young women, coupled with the effects of a somewhat prolonged cold spell in the first quarter.

However, the outlook for the second half of the year is mixed. Not only does the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy’s fashion consumption outlook index point to a contraction, but the fashion industry is also being weighed down by the actual war and the aftermath of high exchange rates. The industry expects business conditions to remain favorable through the second quarter, following the first quarter, as it anticipates a continued base effect given the severe recession in the first half of last year. However, the second half of the year is fraught with uncertainty. If the trend of sluggish summer consumption carries over into the fall/winter season in the second half of the year, the industry will struggle to find a path to recovery.

In particular, the prolonged conflict between the U.S. and Iran has caused a sharp rise in the costs of key raw materials, such as fabric and vinyl, which is adding to the industry’s woes. Given the nature of the fashion industry, it is not easy to immediately reflect rising costs in the final product prices. However, some predict that, unable to withstand the cost pressures that have persisted for several years, some price increases will inevitably occur in the second half of this year. When a slump in consumer spending and price pressures hit simultaneously, the fashion industry’s concerns are bound to grow.

An industry official stated, “While there is a trend toward selective fashion consumption, particularly among younger consumers, the overall market itself appears to be facing growing uncertainty,” adding, “Since the fashion industry has been hit hard by the domestic economic downturn ever since the state of emergency in 2024, we cannot help but be on high alert regarding various variables.”