[Edaily Reporter Shin Yeong-bin ] Pressure on smartphone prices is mounting as the memory supply shortage—triggered by expanded investment in artificial intelligence (AI) data centers—continues into the second half of the year.

According to industry sources on the 5th, the upward trend in major memory prices is expected to continue in the second half of this year. Counterpoint predicted that memory prices, which surged 40–50% in the fourth quarter of last year, rose another 40–50% in the first quarter of this year and are expected to climb about 20% further in the second quarter.

TrendForce analyzed that contract prices for standard DRAM surged 90–95% in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter. It also noted that as memory manufacturers prioritize production capacity for server products due to expanding demand for AI servers, the cost burden on consumer product lines—such as mobile devices and PCs—is increasing.

The impact on the smartphone market has also begun to take hold. IDC forecasts that global smartphone shipments this year will decline by 12.9% year-over-year due to the sharp rise in memory prices. Conversely, it predicts that the average selling price (ASP) will rise 14% to $523 (approximately 800,000 won), reaching an all-time high.

Gartner also analyzed that DRAM and SSD prices could rise by a combined 130% by the end of this year, which could lead to a 13% year-over-year increase in smartphone prices.

Price hikes are also becoming increasingly common. SamsungElectronics raised the prices of its Galaxy S26 series this year compared to its predecessors, ending the price freeze that had been in place since 2023. Last April, it also raised the prices of the already-released 512GB models of the Galaxy Z Fold 7 and Flip 7 by 94,600 won each. This marked the first price increase for products released within the past year in about four years, following the Galaxy Tab S8 series in 2022.

Apple has also joined the trend of price hikes. According to industry sources, Apple raised the prices of some MacBook and iPad models by approximately $100 to $300 last month. The base model MacBook Neo rose by $100 to $699, while the 512GB MacBook Air and 1TB MacBook Pro saw price increases of $200 and $300, respectively, bringing their prices to $1,299 and $1,999.

Observers note that even Apple—a company with a large share of service revenue and high profitability—has adjusted its hardware prices, which is seen as a symbolic example of the severity of the current memory shortage.

Apple CEO Tim Cook described this memory shortage as a “once-in-a-century flood,” and Apple hinted at the possibility of further price increases, stating, “We have never seen component prices rise so sharply in such a short period of time.”

Chinese smartphone manufacturers are no exception. Vivo, Oppo, Realme, and Xiaomi are reported to have recently raised the prices of their new products by approximately 100 to 500 yuan compared to their previous models.

The industry is referring to this trend as “chipflation” or the “memory shock.” Investment in AI infrastructure is driving up demand for server memory, and as limited production capacity is concentrated on high-value product lines, prices for consumer electronics—including smartphones, PCs, and tablets—are rising across the board.

The problem is that the upward trend in memory prices is unlikely to abate anytime soon. In its third-quarter memory price forecast released on the 3rd, TrendForce predicted that contract prices for general-purpose DRAM would rise by 13–18% quarter-over-quarter, while NAND flash prices would see an additional increase of 10–15%. IDC also noted that the ripple effects of the unprecedented memory chip shortage are spreading to manufacturers and end users and could persist until 2027.

From the perspective of smartphone manufacturers, reducing memory capacity is no easy task. This is because the proliferation of on-device AI and Agent AI features is driving demand for more DRAM and storage space in premium smartphones.

According to Counterpoint Research, the share of memory costs in the manufacturing cost of an $800-class smartphone has expanded from around 14% in the first quarter of last year to 40% recently. For the same model, the cost of DRAM and NAND is estimated to have risen from approximately $63 in the first quarter of last year to $291 in the second quarter of this year.

Consequently, attention is focused on the pricing of the Galaxy Z Fold 8 and Flip 8, which SamsungElectronics(005930)is set to unveil on the 22nd. Foldable phones are a product category with higher cost burdens for key components—such as displays, hinges, cameras, and memory—compared to standard bar-style smartphones. With enhanced AI capabilities and the expansion of high-capacity options, observers predict that a price increase compared to previous models is inevitable.

While the U.S. launch price for the base model of the Galaxy Z Fold 8 is expected to remain at $1,999 (approximately 3.05 million won), the same as its predecessor, the prevailing view is that price increases are inevitable for higher-capacity options.

An industry official stated, “It has become too burdensome for manufacturers to absorb the entire cost of rising memory prices,” adding, “It is highly likely that price increases will continue for new products in the second half of the year, particularly for high-capacity models and premium lineups.”