[E-Daily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Analysts in the securities industry have suggested that expectations for domestic shipbuilding stocks should be lowered. This is because expectations for medium- to long-term revenue growth in the specialty vessel segment have been shaken by the failure to secure the Canadian submarine project, and the upward trend in newbuilding prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers—the industry’s main vessel type—is not as strong as anticipated. However, analysts note that valuation pressures have eased due to recent stock price declines, and a rebound could be triggered if major orders are secured in non-merchant shipping sectors such as offshore plants and medium-speed engines.
In a report released on the 10th, Jeong Yeon-seung, an analyst at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, maintained a “Positive” investment outlook for the shipbuilding sector but lowered the target stock prices for all three major shipbuilders. The target price for HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES(329180) was lowered by 17% from the previous level to 830,000 won, while those for SamsungHeavyIndustries(010140)and Hanwha Ocean(042660)were adjusted downward to 34,000 won and 126,000 won, respectively. The investment rating for all three stocks remains “Buy.”

The primary reason for the target price downgrade is weakened growth expectations for specialty vessels. Analysts note that uncertainty has increased regarding whether HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES and Hanwha Ocean will achieve their medium- to long-term revenue growth targets for specialty vessels, following the recent selection of Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) as the preferred bidder for Canada’s next-generation submarine project. HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES has set a 2030 specialty ship sales target of 7 trillion won, while Hanwha Ocean has set a target of 4 trillion won. Currently, the two companies’ annual specialty ship sales stand at around 1 trillion to 1.5 trillion won each.
Researcher Jeong noted, “While order opportunities remain in Saudi Arabia, Greece, South America, and Southeast Asia in addition to Canada, it will take time for these to materialize,” adding, “A reduction in the valuation premium previously applied to the specialty vessel segment is inevitable until momentum for securing large-scale projects is reestablished.”
The merchant ship segment is assessed to be in relatively good shape. Major domestic shipbuilders are highly likely to exceed their annual order targets for merchant ships, driven by an increase in orders for oil tankers, LNG carriers, and LPG carriers. However, the fact that price increases for LNG carriers—their main vessel type—have fallen short of expectations remains a concern. According to NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, the newbuilding price for 174,000-cubic-meter LNG carriers, as compiled by Clarksons, stands at $248.5 million per vessel and has remained stable since turning slightly upward at the end of February.
The end of September has been identified as a turning point for the rebound in LNG carrier prices. The assessment is that if orders for vessels related to the Mozambique LNG project are finalized, upward pressure on prices could increase due to a reduction in available slots. Researcher Jeong explained, “Global LNG development projects are proceeding smoothly, and we expect orders for around 70 LNG carriers per year through 2027,” but added, “From the shipping companies’ perspective, there is not yet a sense of urgency regarding orders strong enough to drive up ship prices in the short term.”
Orders for offshore plants and medium-speed engines were cited as potential turning points for the second half of the year. SamsungHeavyIndustries has already secured orders for the Coral North FLNG and Delfin FLNG Unit 1, leading to an assessment that risks in its offshore plant division are limited. In contrast, HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES and Hanwha Ocean are assessed as needing to secure orders for at least one offshore plant by the end of the year. In particular, Hanwha Ocean’s outcome in the bid for the Venus FPSO—scheduled for late July to early August—was identified as a key factor that will determine the visibility of its second-half earnings.
For HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES, the scale of the medium-speed engine capacity expansion and whether it secures orders for engines for data centers were cited as key factors for a stock price rebound. NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES expects a medium-speed engine capacity expansion of 1.5–2.0 GW and forecasts that increased profits from the engine division starting in 2028 will drive overall earnings improvement. However, the firm noted that the specific scale of the expansion has not yet been finalized remains a source of uncertainty.
Second-quarter earnings are expected to be generally solid. HD HYUNDAI HEAVY INDUSTRIES is projected to report second-quarter revenue of 6.335 trillion won and operating profit of 992.6 billion won, in line with market expectations. Hanwha Ocean is expected to exceed market consensus due to one-time revenue from the P-79 FPSO project. While SamsungHeavyIndustries’ operating profit may fall slightly short of heightened expectations, its offshore plant division is assessed to be relatively stable based on its existing FLNG order book.
Researcher Jeong stated, “Due to the recent decline in stock prices, the price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of domestic shipbuilders as of 2028 has fallen to the 10–13x range, alleviating valuation pressures.” He added, “However, for valuations to rise again, meaningful orders must be secured in non-merchant ship sectors such as specialty vessels, offshore plants, and medium-speed engines.”