[Edaily Reporter Park Sun-Yeop ] Forecasts indicate that operating profits for KOSPI-listed companies in the second quarter of this year will more than triple compared to the same period last year. While the concentration of two-thirds of total profits in SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)is a concern, analysts suggest that investors should focus on stocks that show further price movements following earnings announcements, as profit growth in the 40% range is expected even when excluding these two companies.

In a report released on the 16th, Ahn Ji-sun, an analyst at EUGENE INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, estimated second-quarter KOSPI operating profit at approximately 227.7 trillion won. This represents a 234% increase compared to the same period last year. She projected that net income attributable to controlling shareholders would rise by 265.6% to 176.7 trillion won. Although recent second-quarter earnings estimates have been revised slightly downward, the year-over-year growth rate is still considered substantial.

Operating profit for KOSPI companies, excluding SamsungElectronics and SK hynix, is expected to reach approximately 78.4 trillion won, a 44% increase from the same period last year. Net income attributable to controlling shareholders, excluding these two companies, is also projected to rise by 48% to approximately 53.8 trillion won.
However, the concentration of profits was cited as a cause for concern. SamsungElectronics and SK hynix account for 66% of the KOSPI’s total operating profit and 70% of net income attributable to controlling shareholders. This means that a significant portion of the KOSPI’s profit growth relies on major semiconductor stocks.
By sector, second-quarter operating profit for the semiconductor sector is projected to rise 1,031% year-over-year. The energy sector is expected to grow by 675%, IT hardware by 259%, and shipbuilding by 152%. The display and construction/architecture sectors are also estimated to post growth rates of 93% and 55%, respectively.
In contrast, operating profit in the transportation sector is expected to decline by 3% year-over-year, while trading and capital goods are projected to fall by 7% and consumer staples by 10%. Cosmetics and utilities are also forecast to see profit declines of 14% and 21%, respectively.
Annual earnings forecasts are actually on the rise. This year’s estimated operating profit for the KOSPI is about 970 trillion won, a 223.2% increase from the previous year. This represents an upward revision of more than 60 trillion won from the 910 trillion won estimate at the end of May. Estimates for net income attributable to controlling shareholders also rose by 47 trillion won during the same period, from 712 trillion won to 759 trillion won.
Analyst Ahn cited banking, securities, energy, and construction as sectors where stock price gains have been limited relative to earnings improvements. He explained that while earnings per share (EPS) estimates have risen sharply since the beginning of the year, stock prices have not fully reflected this, making these sectors increasingly attractive in terms of valuation.
When the KOSPI stood at the 7,476 level, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 6.4x, significantly below the historical range of 9–11x. However, the trailing price-to-book (P/B) ratio stood at 2.1x, having fallen slightly from its peak since the index was first calculated, leading to mixed assessments depending on the metric used.
In terms of supply and demand conditions, foreign selling remains a burden. From the start of this year through the 15th, retail investors and institutions made net purchases of 106 trillion won and 39 trillion won, respectively, on the KOSPI, while foreign investors made net sales of 160 trillion won. Foreign investors made net purchases of approximately 20 trillion won from May to October of last year but shifted to a net selling position starting in November.
Researcher Ahn also highlighted the “delayed stock price reaction following earnings announcements,” in which stock prices fail to fully reflect the information on the day of the announcement and continue moving in the same direction afterward. He explained that an analysis of the most recent 40 quarters showed better performance when strategies were based on operating profit surprises rather than net profit surprises, and that a strategy of investing at the closing price on the day of the announcement was also effective.
Based on stocks whose operating profit forecasts have risen rapidly over the past month, EUGENE INVESTMENT & SECURITIES identified the following as candidates for second-quarter earnings surprises: POSCO FUTURE M(003670), LOTTE CHEMICAL CORPORATION(011170), KumhoPetrochemical(011780), NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES(005940), MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES(006800), SamsungSecurities(016360), KIWOOM Securities(039490), KOREA INVESTMENT HOLDINGS(071050), SK(034730), HVM CO.,LTD.(295310), CJ CGV(079160), LG Innotek(011070), and SungEel HiTech Co., Ltd.(365340).