[Edaily Reporter PARK MIN ] In the first half of this year, KOSPI-listed companies—led by SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)—recorded sales of 20,000 trillion won (based on consolidated results), fueling expectations that earnings growth in the second half will match that of the first half. However, there are also conflicting forecasts suggesting that the pace of growth may slow somewhat as the second half progresses, due to a combination of factors including a deceleration in semiconductor price increases, the disappearance of one-time gains, and rising costs such as performance-based bonuses.

According to financial information provider FnGuide Inc. on the 19th, the securities industry estimates third-quarter revenue for the semiconductor sector at 310.09 trillion won and operating profit at 193.4058 trillion won. These figures represent sharp year-over-year increases of 174.3% and 708.1%, respectively. For the fourth quarter as well, revenue is forecast at 332.7653 trillion won and operating profit at 213.2241 trillion won, both higher than in the third quarter. This represents year-over-year increases of 157.0% and 437.8%, respectively.

Industry observers expect the earnings growth trend among KOSPI-listed companies—led by the semiconductor sector—to continue in the second half of the year. Park Yeon-ju, Head of the Research Center at MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES, stated, “While there are concerns about the sustainability of investment given the recent significant increase in AI infrastructure spending, cloud orders from Big Tech companies are growing rapidly. Since AI investment determines medium- to long-term competitiveness, it is highly likely that investment will continue.”

However, there are also concerns that the pace of profit growth in the second half may slow somewhat compared to the first half. This is because several factors are seen as variables, including a slowdown in the momentum of rising semiconductor prices, a decline in the won-dollar exchange rate, and the burden of one-time expenses and performance-based bonuses in the second half.

According to BNK Investment & Securities, the DRAM export price index in July (in won terms) rose 270.3% year-over-year, but the firm projected this to be a slowdown compared to June’s year-over-year increase of 277.9%. The NAND export price index in July also showed a year-over-year increase of 248.1%, but analysts noted that the upward trend peaked in June and has since flattened out.

One-time expenses, such as performance bonuses, are also a factor holding back profit growth. From 2020 to 2024, the average fourth-quarter one-time expenses for KOSPI 200 companies were 22.9 trillion won. This year, the scale of performance-based bonuses is likely to increase, particularly in sectors where earnings have improved—including SamsungElectronics and SK hynix, as well as the defense, shipbuilding, machinery, and financial sectors. Consequently, there are conflicting forecasts suggesting that net income attributable to controlling shareholders for KOSPI 200 companies could be revised downward by 60 trillion to 100 trillion won from the previously projected 783 trillion won for this year.

Kim Seong-no, an analyst at BNK Investment & Securities, said, “Revenue growth is expected to stagnate due to the decline in the exchange rate in the third quarter and the slowing year-over-year growth rate of DRAM and NAND export prices,” adding, “While the fourth quarter typically sees a significant increase in one-time expenses, demands for performance-based bonuses could intensify this year.”

Some observers suggest that interest rates and the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November could also be variables affecting the second-half earnings of domestically listed companies. Baek Chan-kyu, head of the Asset Management Consulting Center at NH INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, predicted, “Ultimately, the end customers of SamsungElectronics and SK hynix are in the U.S.” He added, “If the Trump administration steps up efforts to stimulate consumption and implement economic stimulus measures to win the midterm elections, this will be a positive factor not only for the domestic semiconductor industry but also for companies exporting to the U.S.”