[Edaily Reporter Kim In-kyoung ] As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to send “love calls” to North Korea day after day, Chairman Kim Jong-un’s value is skyrocketing. Although Kim Yo-jong, Director of the General Affairs Department of the Workers’ Party and Chairman Kim’s younger sister, stated that she was “completely unaware” of any communication between the North Korean and U.S. leaders, President Trump reiterated two hours later his intention to meet with Chairman Kim before the end of the year. With no end in sight to the stalemate in the Iran conflict and the November midterm elections approaching—making it urgent for President Trump to show results—there is significant speculation that he may go so far as to scale back U.S.-South Korea joint military exercises, ease sanctions on North Korea, and even recognize its nuclear program in an effort to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. Concerns have also been raised that, in such a scenario, a nuclear domino effect in the Asia-Pacific region would be inevitable, causing the situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula to become highly volatile. It appears that President Trump’s “risky gamble”—aimed at shedding his image as the “U.S. president who started a war” and reinventing himself as a “mediator for peace on the Korean Peninsula”—has effectively begun.
On the night of the 19th, regarding President Trump’s remark that he would “meet with Kim Jong-un within the year,” Vice Director Kim Yo-jong drew a clear line in a statement, saying, “I know nothing about this at all,” and adding, “This must be the only matter concerning our supreme leadership’s foreign policy that I am unaware of.” However, she did not completely rule out the possibility of a U.S.-North Korea summit, noting, “The relationship between the two leaders remains excellent. The whole world knows this.” About two hours after Vice Chair Kim’s statement, President Trump reiterated his commitment to a U.S.-North Korea summit. President Trump also referred to North Korea’s nuclear arsenal as a fait accompli, stating, “He (Kim Jong-un) has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons.” Unlike during Trump’s first term, when denuclearization was the central agenda, this is interpreted as a signal that he intends to engage in negotiations on a nuclear freeze or disarmament while acknowledging North Korea’s nuclear capabilities. This is why some observers predict that the U.S., which is in urgent need of diplomatic achievements, may even raise the possibility of reducing U.S. troops in South Korea or easing sanctions in order to bring North Korea to the negotiating table.
The South Korean government maintains that President Trump’s remarks are no different from a phased denuclearization process leading to “suspension, reduction, and elimination.” However, it cannot be ruled out that President Trump might negotiate to reduce only North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and long-range nuclear capabilities that threaten the U.S. mainland, while leaving tactical nuclear weapons—which would primarily target South Korea—unaddressed. Furthermore, if the U.S. were to recognize North Korea’s nuclear program, it could trigger a “nuclear domino effect” across the Asia-Pacific region, including in Japan and Taiwan.
Professor Im In-chul of the Institute of Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University said, “North Korea has seen right through President Trump’s urgent need for a diplomatic breakthrough, and President Trump is maximizing his own political and pragmatic interests by shifting the security burden onto South Korea while sending signals that seem to grant North Korea the status of a nuclear-armed state.”