[Edaily Reporter kim kwanyong ] Defense Minister Ahn Kyu-baek stated that he estimates North Korea’s nuclear arsenal to be between 80 and 120 warheads. This figure is more than twice the 57 warheads mentioned by U.S. President Donald Trump. It remains to be seen whether South Korea and the U.S. based their assessments on different intelligence or whether they calculated the potential number of warheads that could be produced using existing nuclear warheads and nuclear material differently.

At a plenary session of the National Assembly’s National Defense Committee on the 20th, when Rep. Seong Il-jong of the People Power Party asked for an assessment of President Trump’s remarks, Minister Ahn replied, “It is not appropriate for the South Korean Minister of National Defense to comment, but the numbers do seem to differ slightly.”

He went on to say regarding the government’s assessment of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, “We generally estimate it to be between 80 and 120 warheads,” but added, “It is quite difficult to provide an exact figure.” He further noted, “Considering various factors such as plutonium production and stockpiles, I think this can be described as our mindset or strategic posture.”

It is unclear whether the 80 to 120 warheads mentioned by Minister Ahn refer to nuclear warheads that have actually been assembled or include the quantity that could be produced using the nation’s stockpile of nuclear material. Given the use of the term “strategic posture,” it is also possible that this represents a conservative threat assessment applied by the military when establishing its readiness posture.

Public estimates from international research institutions are closer to the 57 weapons cited by President Trump. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that, as of January of this year, North Korea had assembled approximately 60 nuclear warheads and possessed enough nuclear material to produce at least 30 additional ones. The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) also estimates that North Korea has assembled about 60 nuclear warheads and possesses enough nuclear material to produce at least 90 more. Since access to North Korea’s nuclear facilities is restricted, neither figure represents a verified stockpile; rather, these are estimates calculated based on nuclear material production levels and the amount of nuclear material required per warhead.

President Trump told reporters at the White House on the 19th (local time), “Kim Jong-un has 57 very powerful nuclear weapons.” Although he had previously mentioned a figure of 45 North Korean nuclear weapons last April, he did not provide a basis for his calculation this time either. Given that the U.S. government has not disclosed official estimates of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, it is unprecedented for a sitting president to repeatedly cite such specific numbers.

If North Korea has indeed secured around 60 nuclear warheads, this carries military significance beyond the mere quantity. This is because it opens up greater scope for operating not only strategic nuclear warheads for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) targeting the U.S. mainland and tactical nuclear warheads for short-range missiles targeting South Korea and Japan—beyond the stage of reserving a limited number of warheads solely for a final retaliatory strike to ensure the regime’s survival—but also reserve forces.

However, one cannot conclude solely based on the number of warheads that North Korea has attained a full “second-strike capability.” To preserve its nuclear forces for retaliation even after a preemptive strike, North Korea must secure not only mobile launchers, underground facilities, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles but also highly survivable command-and-control systems. North Korea’s recent focus on miniaturizing nuclear warheads, diversifying its missile types, and expanding nuclear material production is interpreted as a move to complete this force structure.

President Trump’s remarks do not directly imply the U.S. officially recognizes North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) recognizes only the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France—countries that manufactured or detonated nuclear weapons prior to 1967—as nuclear-weapon states. There is a distinction between factually assessing North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and legally and politically recognizing its status as a nuclear-weapon state.

However, the fact that President Trump specifically mentioned North Korea’s nuclear arsenal yet failed to answer questions about whether the purpose of his dialogue with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un is denuclearization is fueling controversy. This has led to speculation that, should U.S.-North Korea talks resume, arms control negotiations—such as a nuclear freeze and reduction—might take precedence over complete denuclearization.

Regarding this, Minister Ahn stated, “We view the United States as not having abandoned the goal of North Korea’s denuclearization,” adding, “I believe President Trump was attempting to employ a two-pronged strategy.” When asked whether South Korea recognizes North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, he emphasized, “We cannot officially recognize it,” stressing that the government’s policy on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula remains unchanged.

He also drew a clear line against arguments calling for the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea. Minister Ahn stated, “I believe this should not be accepted,” adding, “We are consistently pursuing a policy aimed at ensuring we firmly receive the U.S. nuclear umbrella.”