[Edaily Reporter PARK MIN ] On the 27th, Shinhan Investment Securities projected that the value of HanmiPharm’s entire obesity treatment pipeline would be reevaluated following the company’s technology export of a new obesity drug candidate—which reduces muscle loss—to global pharmaceutical company Genentech (a subsidiary of Roche). The firm maintained its “Buy” rating and raised its target price by 27.5%, from approximately 510,000 won to 650,000 won.

In a report published that day, Shinhan Investment Securities analysts Lee Ho-cheol and Eom Min-yong stated, “Given the confirmed interest from Big Pharma in next-generation obesity treatments, a revaluation of HanmiPharm’s entire obesity pipeline is possible,” adding, “Expectations for technology transfers regarding remaining obesity treatment candidates, such as HM15275 and HM-500197, are also likely to continue.”

The key factor behind this target price increase is the HM17321 technology transfer agreement signed on the 24th. HanmiPharm transferred global rights (excluding Korea) for HM17321, a muscle-preserving obesity treatment candidate, to Genentech, a subsidiary of Roche. The total contract value is $2.35 billion (approximately 3.2 trillion won), with an upfront payment of $190 million (approximately 270 billion won).

In particular, the fact that the upfront payment accounts for 8.2% of the total deal value was viewed positively. According to Shinhan Investment & Securities, the average upfront payment ratio for technology transfer deals between domestic pharmaceutical companies and big pharma is around 4%. HM17321 is currently in the global Phase 1 clinical trial stage, and Genentech will take over development starting with Phase 2 after HanmiPharm completes Phase 1.

HM17321 is a candidate compound developed to address muscle loss, which is considered a major side effect of existing obesity treatments. As a CRF2 receptor-targeting UCN-2 analog, it aims to become a next-generation obesity treatment that simultaneously increases muscle mass and reduces body fat.

Shinhan Investment Securities analyzed that this technology export provides an opportunity to reevaluate HanmiPharm’s entire obesity pipeline. By reflecting HM17321’s new drug value at 1.722 trillion won, the firm revised HanmiPharm’s total new drug value upward to 4.938 trillion won.

In particular, the company’s follow-up pipeline is drawing attention. Analysts note that the likelihood of additional technology transfers has increased for compounds such as HM15275—currently undergoing a global Phase 2 trial—and HM-500197, for which preclinical data was presented at the American Diabetes Association (ADA) conference last June.

An improvement in earnings is also anticipated. Shinhan Investment Securities projected Hanmi Pharmaceutical’s ( HanmiPharm(128940)) revenue for this year at 1.8639 trillion won and operating profit at 549.4 billion won. Operating profit is expected to increase by 113.1% year-over-year. In particular, third-quarter operating profit is estimated to surge by 464.7% year-over-year to 311 billion won.

On the other hand, the poor performance of its Chinese subsidiary, Beijing Hanmi, is a cause for concern. Shinhan Investment Securities projected that Beijing Hanmi’s revenue for this year will be 281.6 billion won, a 30% decrease from the previous year. However, HanmiPharm’s standalone revenue is expected to increase by 37.9% to 1.5814 trillion won.