[E-Daily Reporter KIM JI-WAN ] Meritz Securities has raised its target price for Hanmi Pharmaceutical ( HanmiPharm(128940)) to 710,000 won, reflecting the value of the technology transfer for its next-generation obesity treatment “HM17321.” Analysts note that the value of HM17321 has increased as global competition in the obesity treatment market has shifted from simple weight loss to “qualitative weight loss that reduces fat while preserving muscle.”

Meritz Securities published a report on the 25th titled “UCN2: Chosen by Roche” and maintained its “Buy” investment rating on HanmiPharm. Based on the closing price of 540,000 won on the 24th, the stock has upside potential of 31.5%.

“3 Trillion Won Technology Export”: HM17321 Valued at 665.6 Billion Won

The key focus of this report is HM17321, the technology that HanmiPharm licensed to Genentech, a subsidiary of Roche.

On the 24th, HanmiPharm signed a technology transfer agreement for HM17321 with Genentech worth approximately 3.2 trillion won.

The upfront payment of $190 million (260.7 billion won) accounts for approximately 8.2% of the total contract value. Meritz Securities assessed the deal as quite positive, considering that HM17321 is still in Phase 1 clinical trials and that the average upfront payment ratio for global technology transfer agreements is about 6–7%.

Another positive factor is that the company has secured another major deal with a global big pharma company, following the technology transfer agreement signed with Eli Lilly last June.

Meritz Securities estimated the new drug value of HM17321 at 665.6 billion won. Including this, HanmiPharm’s total new drug value was assessed at 4.2891 trillion won. Reflecting an operating value of 4.5226 trillion won, among other factors, the firm set a target share price of 710,000 won.

The report attributed the significance of this agreement not merely to a simple technology export but to shifts in the global obesity treatment market.

As weight loss rates for GLP-1 agonists have risen to 15–20% or higher, market focus is shifting from “how much weight is lost” to “what is being lost.”

In the STEP 1 Phase 3 clinical trial, semaglutide reduced body weight by 15.0% and body fat mass by 19.3% over 68 weeks, but lean body mass also decreased by 9.7%. Similarly, in the SURMOUNT-1 trial, tirzepatide reduced body weight by 21.3% and body fat mass by 33.9%, while lean body mass decreased by 10.9%.

The issue of lean body mass—including muscle—decreasing alongside body weight during the weight loss process has thus emerged as a key challenge that next-generation obesity treatments must address.

Lose Fat, Gain Muscle and Strength… The UCN2 Differentiator

HM17321 has been evaluated as a pipeline candidate capable of addressing these market shifts.

HM17321 is a long-acting, CRF2-selective UCN2 (Urocortin-2) analog. UCN2 selectively activates CRF2 receptors found in skeletal muscle and adipose tissue.

CRF2 activation promotes fat breakdown in adipose tissue while simultaneously acting directly on skeletal muscle to induce hypertrophy, improve metabolism, and enhance muscle function. The goal is to go beyond merely preventing the muscle loss associated with GLP-1 therapy to selectively reduce fat while increasing both muscle mass and actual muscle function.

The preclinical results are also noteworthy.

HM17321 reduced body fat mass by 33.6% in obese mice while increasing lean body mass by 11.9%. In animal studies presented at ADA 2026, body fat mass decreased by 41.1% in male obese mice and 34.0% in female obese mice, while lean body mass increased by 3.2% and 3.5%, respectively.

In particular, Meritz Securities highlighted that HM17321 was found to not only increase muscle mass but also improve muscle strength.

In the same study, bimagrumab increased lean body mass by 12.9–18.6%, but no significant improvement in muscle function was observed. In contrast, analysts suggest that HM17321 may differentiate itself by targeting not only muscle mass but also improvements in muscle strength.

However, all muscle-related efficacy data to date are based on preclinical results. It has not yet been confirmed whether the same effects can be replicated in clinical trials involving humans.

Meritz Securities believes that this strategy underlies Roche’s decision to select HM17321.

At the ADA 2026 conference, Roche directly identified “decrease in lean body mass” as a key unmet need in obesity treatment, alongside tolerability, weight loss plateau, maintenance therapy, and the incretin-resistant population.

HM17321 has shown strong potential for synergy, particularly when used in combination with amylin-class drugs.

According to the report, while the reduction in body fat in the monotherapy groups for amylin analogs—such as cagrilintide, petrelintide, and eloralintide—ranged from 15.8% to 32.4%, it increased to 45.4% to 56.5% in the HM17321 combination therapy group. Lean body mass also increased by 17.9–22.1% in the combination group.

Roche is already developing long-acting amylin analogs such as Petrelintide and Enicepatide. Meritz Securities analyzed that HM17321 could be mechanistically complementary to Roche’s existing obesity pipeline.