[Edaily Reporter Jeong Yun-ji ] Amid continued rises in home prices, forecasts suggest that the tax burden on apartment owners in Seoul will increase significantly if the Comprehensive Real Estate Tax (CRET) is reformed. By 2030, owners of apartments with an exclusive floor area of 84 square meters (approximately 34 pyeong) or more throughout Seoul—excluding Dobong, Gangbuk, and Geumcheon Districts—could become subject to the CRET.

On the 6th, Rep. Shin Dong-wook of the National Assembly’s Political Affairs Committee released an analysis of changes in Comprehensive Real Estate Tax burdens for the top five apartment complexes by KB market value (based on 34 pyeong) in each of Seoul’s 25 autonomous districts, based on data provided by KB Kookmin Bank.

Rep. Shin based his analysis on the government’s revised tax reform proposal submitted to the National Assembly. He assumed that the basic deduction would be set at 1.4 billion won (1.2 billion won for non-residents) in 2027 and that the tax burden cap would be 150%.

The analysis found that 78 complexes in 19 districts will be subject to the comprehensive real estate tax this year. In the three Gangnam districts (Gangnam, Seocho, and Songpa) and the “Ma-Yong-Seong” area (Mapo, Yongsan, and Seongdong), as well as in Gangdong, Gwangjin, Dongdaemun, Dongjak, Seodaemun, Yeongdeungpo, and Jung-gu, all of the top five housing complexes are subject to the tax. The average comprehensive real estate tax for these complexes this year is estimated at 95,133,800 won.

It was also found that if the housing price growth rate remains at 11%, 22 of Seoul’s 25 districts will be subject to the comprehensive real estate tax by 2030. In fact, Seoul’s apartment prices rose by 11% over the 12-month period from June of last year to May of this year.

In this scenario, by 2030, non-residents would pay 8,428,401 won in comprehensive real estate tax per unit—an 8.9-fold increase. Residents would be assessed 5,549,778 won—an approximately 5.7-fold increase.

The number of complexes subject to the tax will also increase significantly to 101 across 22 districts. This means complexes subject to the Comprehensive Real Estate Tax will emerge in eight districts: Gangseo, Gwanak, Nowon, Jungnang, Guro, Eunpyeong, Seongbuk, and Jongno. In contrast, only Gangbuk, Geumcheon, and Dobong districts were found to have no complexes subject to the tax.

For example, a 35-pyeong unit in the DMC SK View complex in Eunpyeong District—which currently pays no comprehensive real estate tax—will be subject to the tax based on non-resident status starting in 2029, requiring a payment of approximately 1.13 million won in 2030. It is estimated that the comprehensive real estate tax burden for non-residents will rise more rapidly in areas outside the three Gangnam districts than in those districts themselves. While the comprehensive real estate tax burden for non-residents in the three Gangnam districts is projected to increase 7.8-fold by 2030, it is expected to rise 8.8-fold in the Ma-Yong-Seong area and 12-fold in Gangdong, Gwangjin, Dongdaemun, Dongjak, Seodaemun, Yeongdeungpo, Jung, Jongno, and Yangcheon districts. Furthermore, it was found that the comprehensive real estate tax in Eunpyeong, Guro, Seongbuk, Gangseo, Dongdaemun, Gwanak, Nowon, and Jungnang Districts would increase 56.6 times compared to current levels.

Meanwhile, the government issued a press release that day refuting the simulation results. The Ministry of Finance and Economy stated, “It is not advisable to estimate the tax base and tax amount based on the assumption of excessive price increases,” adding “The comprehensive real estate tax simulation presented in the report was calculated based on the assumption that apartment prices in Seoul would rise continuously by 11% annually; however, over the past 20 years, the fluctuation rate of officially assessed prices for multi-unit housing has fluctuated up and down, and there were only three years in which prices rose by more than 10% compared to the previous year.”

He further elaborated, “In particular, even this year, when the officially assessed prices of multi-unit housing in Seoul rose significantly (by approximately 18.3%), it is important to consider the substantial disparity in rate of increase among the three Gangnam districts (approximately 25%), districts adjacent to the Han River (approximately 23%), and other districts (approximately 7%).”