[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] Despite August’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls figures significantly exceeding market expectations, forecasts indicate that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is still expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.

Park Sang-hyun, an analyst at iM Securities, stated in a report on the 7th, “The surge in August’s nonfarm payrolls is a one-off phenomenon, and given the trend of slowing wage growth, it seems unlikely that August’s inflation data will trigger inflationary risks.”
Although nonfarm payrolls rose sharply in August, a closer look at the details raises questions about the sustainability of this trend. The analysis explains that the leisure sector and the government sector—which drove the job growth in August—had seen job losses or minimal gains in June and July, making it unclear whether this strong performance will continue into September. Given that the number of employed persons in the Household Survey—which is less volatile than nonfarm payrolls—declined for six of the seven months from January through July this year (excluding May), the sharp increase in August is likely to be merely a temporary phenomenon.
Wage growth rates were also highlighted as a key focus. In August, wages rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with the year-over-year wage growth rate continuing its trend of deceleration. It is explained that the slowdown in wage growth indicates the labor market is not as strong as the increase in the number of jobs suggests, while also serving as a factor that reduces inflationary pressure through the wage channel, which significantly influences service prices.
Political factors were also highlighted as significant. Immediately following the release of the employment data on the 4th, President Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social: “A strong nation must have low interest rates. If interest rates are not lowered, the U.S. will cease trade with countries that run a deficit with us.” He added, “The Fed must become wise. It’s time to be patriotic.” Vice President J.D. Vance also publicly urged the Fed to cut interest rates, calling it an appropriate response to recent inflation data. Analysts suggest that, with the midterm elections approaching, President Trump is putting even more pressure on Chairman Kevin Warsh, as a September rate hike could negatively impact his re-election campaign.
Researcher Park said, “If Chairman Kevin Warsh is to go ahead with a September rate hike, it must be confirmed through data such as the consumer price index—to be released this week—that inflationary pressures are once again rising significantly.” He added, “However, based solely on current market forecasts for September’s consumer price index, it seems difficult to substantiate that inflationary pressures are spreading rapidly.”