[Edaily Reporter PARK MIN ] On the 7th, SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660)posted significant gains of 5–8%, buoyed by expectations of increased memory demand driven by OpenAI’s next-generation artificial intelligence (AI) model, “GPT-6 Astra.” Foreign and institutional investors, who had been selling off shares, jointly made net purchases totaling around 5 trillion won, raising hopes for a rebound in the stock market, which had been stuck in a trading range.

However, there are also growing calls to guard against premature optimism, as trading volume has shrunk to record lows following last July’s historic market crash, while stock price volatility has increased. Experts predict that the direction of the domestic stock market will only become clear after macroeconomic issues—such as the U.S. inflation index release and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting scheduled for mid-month—have passed.

◇SK hynix Up 8%, SamsungElectronics Up 5%

According to MP Doctor on the 7th, SK hynix closed at 1,783,000 won, up 8.26% from the previous trading day, while SamsungElectronics closed at 270,000 won, up 5.68% from the previous trading day. Buoyed by the strength of these two market leaders, the KOSPI also rose 308.18 points (4.61%) from the previous trading day, closing at 6,995.39—just shy of the 7,000 mark.

In particular, foreign investors purchased 2.5525 trillion won worth of stocks on the KOSPI that day, while institutional investors bought 2.6496 trillion won worth, resulting in a total net buying volume of 5.2 trillion won that drove the index higher. The share buybacks by the two leading semiconductor companies—which began late last month—and net buying by other corporations continued today, with these entities purchasing 1.6352 trillion won worth of shares and driving the index higher.

Previously, both companies had been trading in a range, fluctuating up and down, following a historic market crash in July. SK hynix recorded a sharp one-day rebound on August 20—the day after announcing an unprecedented shareholder return plan (SK hynix up 12.73%, SamsungElectronics up 9.49%)—but has since remained trapped within a trading range, fluctuating up and down, and is now attempting to break through the upper boundary of that range once again.

Some analysts point out that since this rebound by the two leading semiconductor stocks occurred amid a “liquidity drought” in KOSPI trading volume—which had fallen to its lowest level this year—it is unlikely to lead to a sustained “breakout above the upper boundary of the trading range.” In fact, while the KOSPI was on a relentless rally, breaking through the 9,000 mark last June, the average daily trading volume exceeded 50 trillion won; however, it has “plummeted” to 17 trillion won this month. This means trading volume has shrunk to less than half its previous level in just over two months. Furthermore, investor deposits—which serve as standby funds for the stock market—plummeted to the 96 trillion won range at the end of August, remaining at their lowest level this year, and are cited as a factor limiting the index’s resilience.

◇ U.S. August CPI, PPI, and FOMC Meetings Coming Up One After Another

Another source of concern is that this month is a “Big Week,” packed with global macroeconomic events that influence the domestic stock market. Following the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in mid-month, a series of major turning points in monetary policy—including the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting—are scheduled to take place. In the current market environment, where trading volume is low, even a minor data shock could cause the index to fluctuate significantly.

The securities industry expects trading volume to increase and the index to rebound around the time of SamsungElectronics and SK hynix’s third-quarter earnings announcements in late October. Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at DaishinSecurities, stated, “The domestic stock market has been on a downward trend as external uncertainties have come to the fore, despite robust export and earnings momentum in the semiconductor and non-semiconductor sectors.” He added, “However, as earnings, economic, and policy momentum remain valid, we expect a rebound driven by a valuation re-rating.”

In particular, attention is focused on whether the “share buybacks by other corporations” will serve as a bulwark capable of withstanding global market turbulence. With SK hynix currently conducting a 40 trillion won share buyback and SamsungElectronics a 15 trillion won one, observers predict these programs will conclude around mid-October, based on the current average daily purchase rate.

An official from the securities industry noted, “With trading volume shrinking, short-term volatility stemming from macroeconomic events in September may be unavoidable,” but added “While share buybacks by other companies provide downside support, if expanding AI memory demand and confirmed third-quarter earnings become evident, stock market liquidity will revive, creating the momentum needed to break out of the current trading range.”