[E-Daily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] As the U.S. government shows signs of restricting the use of CATL’s battery technology, expectations are growing that domestic battery companies will benefit indirectly. Daol Investment & Securities has simultaneously raised the fair value estimates for three stocks in the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) value chain: LG Energy Solution(373220), SAMSUNG SDI CO.,LTD.(006400), and L&F(066970).
On the 10th, Yoo Ji-woong, an analyst at Daol Investment & Securities, stated, “The possibility of restrictions on the adoption of CATL technology has increased following the open Seohan sent by the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) to Ford yesterday,” adding, “Korean battery companies are expected to benefit as a result.” He went on to explain, “GM, which recently launched its Energy Storage System (ESS) division, has also signaled that it will completely block reliance on Chinese products, meaning that the value of Korean-made materials will rise for new ESS orders.”
Daol Investment & Securities raised its fair value estimates for LG Energy Solution, SAMSUNG SDI CO.,LTD., and L&F, which currently have established supply pipelines for LFP-based ESS. The fair value estimates were adjusted to 620,000 won for LG Energy Solution(373220), 900,000 won for SAMSUNG SDI CO.,LTD.(006400), and 220,000 won for L&F(066970), respectively. Researcher Yoo stated, “We have raised the targets by 7–10% compared to the previously applied valuation multiples, reflecting the potential for an increase in the value of assets currently being supplied or in operation.”
Researcher Yoo noted, “Based on information released yesterday, it appears increasingly likely that Ford’s use of CATL technology will be fundamentally blocked.” He predicted, “While Ford has pursued a strategy of indirectly importing only CATL technology to secure LFP battery manufacturing capabilities, following the imposition of usage restrictions, Korean cell and materials companies are expected to emerge as the sole alternative in the LFP supply landscape.”
Researcher Yoo said, “Domestic companies began supplying cathode materials used in LFP batteries starting in the third quarter of 2026,” adding, “While the Chonbang market previously relied heavily on a single company—Tesla Energy—we believe that, given the recent remarks from the U.S. Department of Transportation, a premium for market scalability has become possible.”
He continued, “The Department of Transportation’s recent statement appears aimed at blocking any potential circumvention of the PFE (Foreign Entity of Concern) regulations under the current OBBBA (One Big Beautiful Bill),” and “Since this applies not only to Ford but also to automakers and ESS manufacturers such as GM and Rivian, the strategic importance of Korean battery companies—which are currently the only ones capable of manufacturing and supplying LFP cells in the U.S.—could increase,” he emphasized.
Researcher Yoo stated, “The LFP business of Korean cell and materials companies has moved beyond mere expectations for new ventures and has entered a stage where its value can be assessed based on orders and production capacity (Capa),” adding, “This tightening of regulations is expected to increase the scarcity value of non-Chinese LFP production capacity and serve as a clear catalyst for rising asset values.”