[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] A forecast indicates that SamsungElectronics(005930)’s market share in the High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) market will approach 40% in the fourth quarter of this year. Analysts predict that both the memory and foundry businesses will enter a growth trajectory as sales of sixth-generation HBM4 expand and yields for leading-edge foundry processes improve rapidly.

Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, stated in a report on the 11th regarding SamsungElectronics, “It is the only company that has secured the capability to provide turnkey solutions encompassing HBM, foundry, and packaging, going beyond the supply of individual memory products,” adding, “The scope for future growth will expand even further.”

According to SamsungSecurities, SamsungElectronics’ HBM market share stood at 33% in the second quarter and is projected to approach 40% in the fourth quarter. HBM4 revenue in the third quarter is expected to more than triple compared to the previous quarter, and HBM4’s share of total HBM revenue in the second half is projected to exceed 60%.

The company is also expected to maintain its competitiveness in next-generation HBM. Following the full-scale mass production of HBM4, SamsungElectronics is currently supplying HBM4E samples to major customers. The company has also secured the HBM5 architecture, which utilizes a 1c core die and a 2-nanometer (nm) base die, and has a concrete product roadmap extending to the next-generation product, zHBM.

In particular, zHBM is regarded as a product that significantly increases data transmission bandwidth while addressing heat dissipation issues. Analysts note that SamsungElectronics can not only supply everything in-house—from the base die to interlayers, packaging, and HBM—but can also secure supply through its strategic partnership with TSMC, thereby broadening options for its customers. KB Securities predicted that this ability to provide a one-stop solution will expand growth opportunities for SamsungElectronics’ HBM business.

The foundry business, which had previously weighed on earnings, is also expected to enter a recovery phase. SamsungElectronics’ production yield for its 4-nanometer process has stabilized at over 80%, and the yield for its 2-nanometer Gate-All-Around (GAA) process is estimated to have rapidly improved to over 70%.

Consequently, the foundry business is expected to have a high probability of returning to profitability starting in the third quarter of this year, driven by the full-scale mass production of 4-nanometer LPUs and stabilized yields. The 4-nanometer yield has effectively reached a level competitive with TSMC, and the 2-nanometer yield has also risen from less than 50% at the beginning of the year to over 70%; as a result, the company is expected to secure major U.S. clients within the year.

Improvements in foundry yield could also create synergies with the HBM business. The explanation is that, with the expansion of HBM market share coupled with improvements in leading-edge foundry yields, SamsungElectronics can move beyond a structure of merely supplying memory products and strengthen a business model that bundles everything from HBM design and production to foundry and packaging.

“Customized HBM based on client-specific specifications is expected to enable further price increases following HBM4, for which a significant price hike is highly likely,” said Division Head Kim. “Accordingly, we anticipate that the initiative in HBM supply will shift to memory manufacturers, who hold the seller’s advantage.”