[Edaily Reporter Kim Kook Bae ] The semiconductor boom is reshaping the government’s tax revenue landscape. With profits surging at major companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, corporate tax revenue is projected to exceed 200 trillion won for the first time in history next year. This marks the first time in 15 years that corporate tax revenue has surpassed income tax revenue.

The effects of this recovery in tax revenue were immediately evident in the government’s short-term cash position. From the beginning of this year through August, the government’s use of its so-called “overdraft account” at the Bank of Korea fell to about half the level seen during the same period last year.

The problem is that a significant portion of the tax revenue recovery relies on improved corporate performance, particularly in the semiconductor sector. A key challenge is that if corporate income tax continues to fluctuate significantly depending on the semiconductor market cycle, the stability of fiscal management could be undermined.

◇Corporate Tax Revenue to Double Next Year

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance’s 2027 national tax revenue budget proposal released on the 14th, corporate tax revenue next year is projected to reach 216.7 trillion won, exceeding income tax revenue of 180 trillion won by 36.7 trillion won. This marks the first time corporate tax revenue has surpassed 200 trillion won, and the first time it has exceeded income tax revenue in 15 years, since 2012.

The scale of the increase in corporate income tax revenue is also unprecedented. Due to the slump in the semiconductor industry, corporate income tax revenue fell from 103.6 trillion won in 2022 to 80.4 trillion won in 2023 and 62.5 trillion won in 2024. Since then, they have rebounded to 84.6 trillion won in 2025 and 101.3 trillion won this year, based on the supplementary budget.

As tax revenue conditions improved, the amount the government had to borrow from the Bank of Korea also decreased. According to data obtained by Edaily from the office of Kim Sang-hoon, a People Power Party lawmaker on the National Assembly’s Finance, Economy, and Planning Committee, the government’s cumulative temporary loans from the BOK from January through August of this year totaled 76.2 trillion won. This represents a decrease of 69.3 trillion won, or 47.6 percent, compared to the 145.5 trillion won recorded during the same period last year.

The BOK’s temporary loans to the government serve as a means to bridge temporary cash shortfalls that arise between the time tax revenues enter the national treasury and the time the government disburses funds. Similar to how individuals withdraw money from an overdraft account at a bank when needed, this practice is colloquially referred to as the “BOK overdraft.”

The volume of borrowing, which had surged in recent years, has also begun to decline. Cumulative borrowing from January through August increased annually, rising from 34.2 trillion won in 2022 to 113.6 trillion won in 2023, 127.9 trillion won in 2024, and 145.5 trillion won last year. This year, the figure has dropped to the 76 trillion won range, marking the lowest level since 2022. The number of months in which borrowing occurred also decreased from seven last year to five this year.

Although the amount borrowed decreased, borrowing rates actually rose. The Bank of Korea’s interest rate on short-term loans to the government, which stood at 2.524% per annum in January of this year, rose for seven consecutive months from February through August, reaching 2.828% per annum. Interest expenses on these short-term loans from January through August of this year totaled 58.92 billion won.

◇Bank of Korea Borrowing Has Declined, but… Fiscal Dependence on Semiconductors Remains a Challenge

Although the scale of borrowing has been reduced, the volatility of tax revenue remains a cause for concern. If corporate tax revenue is heavily influenced by the performance of specific industries, such as the semiconductor sector, government finances could fluctuate in tandem with economic conditions. This is because a pattern is likely to repeat: during a semiconductor downturn, declining corporate profits lead to lower corporate tax revenue and a tax shortfall, while during a boom, tax revenue increases significantly more than expected.

In particular, if the government interprets the increased tax revenue during a boom as a structural rise in revenue and expands spending accordingly, the fiscal burden could suddenly become much heavier when the semiconductor market subsequently turns down. This is why experts are pointing out the need to distinguish between temporary “excess tax revenue” and sustainable revenue when managing public finances.

It is against this backdrop that the government intends to utilize the Future Response Fund as a fiscal stabilization mechanism. The plan is to set aside a portion of the increased tax revenue generated during boom periods to mitigate fiscal shocks when an economic slowdown or tax revenue shortfall occurs.

Lee Tae-seok, Director of the Fiscal and Social Policy Research Division at the Korea Development Institute (KDI), stated at a recent forum, “While the scale of the tax revenue increase driven by the semiconductor boom is unprecedented, its sustainability could vary significantly depending on changes in industry conditions.” He added, “Since both the scale of the revenue increase and the associated uncertainty exceed normal levels, we need to consider new institutional mechanisms to respond to changes in fiscal conditions.”

Rep. Kim Sang-hoon remarked, “While it is fortunate that the government’s use of temporary loans from the Bank of Korea has decreased, it still relies on tens of trillions of won in short-term borrowing.” He added, “We must increase revenue and enhance the predictability of fiscal execution to reduce unnecessary borrowing and interest burdens.”