[Edaily Reporter Choi Oh-hyun ] As memory prices have skyrocketed due to demand for artificial intelligence (AI), earnings forecasts for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix for the third quarter of this year have risen across the board. It is now virtually certain that they will set new records for operating profit. However, the rate of growth in operating profit is gradually slowing, which is drawing attention. In particular, concerns are emerging that the positive impact on earnings will be halved compared to expectations, as the won-dollar exchange rate recently plummeted to the 1,300 won range (a strengthening won).

According to financial information provider FnGuide Inc. on the 20th, market forecasts for the third-quarter operating profits of SamsungElectronics and SK hynix have both risen compared to three months ago. SamsungElectronics’ estimated third-quarter operating profit stands at 111.37 trillion won. This is approximately 5.46 trillion won (5.2%) higher than the figure from three months ago (105.91 trillion won). This represents a 24.4% increase from the second quarter (89.49 trillion won), when the company posted its highest-ever quarterly earnings. The consensus estimate for SK hynix has also been revised upward by 1.6%, from 76.91 trillion won three months ago to the current 78.12 trillion won. This represents a 29% increase compared to the previous quarter’s operating profit (60.54 trillion won).

The sharp rise in prices driven by memory supply and demand instability is fueling these earnings expectations. Market research firm TrendForce raised its forecast for the third-quarter contract price increase for PC DRAM from the previous range of 15–20% to 18–23%. The average fixed transaction price for 8Gb DDR4 PC DRAM hit a record high of $25 in August. TrendForce also projected that third-quarter contract prices for server DRAM would rise by 13–18% compared to the previous quarter.

Kim Dong-won, a division head at KB Securities, said, “We have not observed any signs of a decline in memory orders from major customers, which are currently centered on High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) and high-performance DRAM.” Omdia forecast that global semiconductor revenue in the third quarter would exceed $500 billion—a record high—driven by the memory boom.

However, it is worth noting that the quarterly operating profit growth rates of the top two memory manufacturers are gradually slowing down. In the case of SamsungElectronics, operating profit in the first quarter of this year surged 184.6% quarter-over-quarter to 57.2 trillion won, but the growth rate fell to 56.5% in the second quarter. It is expected to drop further to 24.4% in the third quarter. Over the same period, SK hynix also followed a similar trend: 96.2% → 61.0% → 29.0% (forecast).

A key factor in particular is the sharp appreciation of the won. While the third-quarter operating profit consensus is higher than estimates from three months ago, it has been revised downward compared to forecasts from one month ago—by approximately 2.6 trillion won for SamsungElectronics and about 700 billion won for SK hynix, respectively. The exchange rate recently fell rapidly from around 1,550 won per dollar in early July to the 1,330 won range at one point this month. This represents an approximately 16% appreciation of the won in just over two months. Nomura Securities analyzed that a 10% appreciation of the won could result in a short-term decline of about 12% in operating profit for domestic memory manufacturers.

Securities firms have begun revising downward their operating profit estimates for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix to reflect the impact of the exchange rate. DB Securities recently projected that the third-quarter operating profits of both companies would fall slightly short of market expectations due to factors such as the unfavorable exchange rate. BNK Investment & Securities lowered its third-quarter operating profit forecasts for SamsungElectronics and SK hynix by 5% and 6%, respectively.