[E-Daily Reporter KIM YOON-JEONG ] As expectations for interest rate hikes in major economies, including the U.S., grow, investors’ calculations are becoming more complex following the Chuseok holiday. While rising interest rates typically weigh on growth stocks and benefit financial sectors such as banking and insurance, recent stock market trends have been difficult to explain solely by this formula. Semiconductor stocks, which have led the domestic stock market, have risen nearly 10% this month despite the burden of rising interest rates. Analysts in the securities industry suggest that while investors should once again focus on semiconductors—driven by artificial intelligence (AI) investments and continued earnings momentum—they must also closely monitor the earnings and economic conditions of financial stocks, which are expected to benefit from rising interest rates.

According to the Korea Exchange on the 26th, SK hynix(000660)has risen 9.98% this month. SK hynix(000660), which closed at 1,693,000 won on the 1st of this month, rose to 1.9 million won during intraday trading on the 23rd—the most recent trading day—before closing regular trading at 1,862,000 won. This marks a stark contrast to last August, when the stock fell 2.56% from 1,718,000 won to 1,674,000 won. SamsungElectronics(005930) Similarly, while the stock fell 0.95% from 262,500 won to 260,000 won in August, it has risen 9.39% this month, climbing from 261,000 won on the 1st to 285,500 won on the 23rd.
◇Semiconductors Jump 10% Despite Interest Rate Burden… “Time to Take Another Look”
Analysts in the securities industry have suggested that investors should once again turn their attention to semiconductor stocks, which have recently undergone a correction. In a recent report, KB Securities concluded that now is the time to revisit semiconductor stocks, taking advantage of the pause in the rise of long-term interest rates. The analysis notes that while semiconductor stocks were once considered commodity stocks—strongly influenced by cyclical business conditions—they have shifted in character since the sharp surge last May to become narrative stocks whose prices react sensitively to AI expectations.
From a technical perspective, the firm also believes conditions are being set for the sector to enter a new uptrend. It explains that as semiconductor stocks have recently undergone sharp spikes, plunges, and a period of consolidation, short- and long-term moving averages have converged, bringing the average purchase prices of short- and long-term holders closer together. Analysts noted that since the current price level could act as a strong support or resistance line, if trading volume increases and the stock price breaks above the moving average, all moving averages will form a bullish alignment, potentially signaling the start of a new uptrend.
Expectations for new AI demand were also cited as a positive factor. They noted that the postponement of Anthropic’s IPO—from September to October, and then again to November—has alleviated supply-and-demand pressures that could have led to an outflow of domestic investor funds overseas. They also assessed that Meta’s newly unveiled Agent AI, “Muse,” could boost demand for central processing units (CPUs) and memory, serving as a new AI narrative beyond mere earnings improvements.
The problem is that the stability of long-term interest rates—a key premise of this positive outlook on semiconductors—did not materialize afterward. KB Securities had emphasized the possibility that semiconductor stocks could enter a new uptrend if the rise in interest rates subsided and trading volume increased; however, U.S. long-term interest rates subsequently reached even higher peaks.
On the 24th (local time), the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged to 5.223% during the trading session, hitting its highest level since June 2007. The yield on the 30-year note also rose to 5.501%, reaching its highest level since June 2004. As inflation concerns grow due to a strong U.S. economy and rising international oil prices, expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed) are also strengthening.
However, the sharp rise in long-term interest rates did not immediately lead to a stock market plunge. On the same day, the S&P 500 index fell 0.02% on the New York Stock Exchange, while the Nasdaq index rose 0.01%, closing near the previous day’s level. The market recovered most of its intraday losses, supported by a strong economy and solid corporate fundamentals, as well as expectations for renewed negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz.
◇High Interest Rates Weigh on Growth Stocks Like Semiconductors… But Could They Be a Boon for Financial Stocks?
While rising long-term interest rates could weigh on semiconductor stocks, they may create a favorable environment for financial stocks such as banks and insurance companies. KB Securities also identified insurance and banking as sectors likely to benefit from rising interest rates in a recent report.
However, rising interest rates do not necessarily lead directly to a bull market for financial stocks. An analysis by SamsungSecurities of the two interest rate hike cycles over the past decade—2016–2018 and 2022–2023—showed that the performance of financial stocks varied depending on economic conditions and the pace of rate hikes.
During the 2016–2018 period, which was accompanied by an economic recovery, the rise in financial stocks was concentrated in the early stages of the rate hike cycle, and bank stocks—which were able to quickly benefit from improved earnings driven by the economic recovery—posted relatively robust returns. During this period, the spread between short- and long-term interest rates served as the primary driver for bank stocks, while long-term interest rates were the key driver for insurance stocks.
In contrast, during 2022–2023, steep interest rate hikes in response to rising inflation weighed on the economy. For banks, concerns over deteriorating financial soundness and liquidity came to the fore, and the spread between short- and long-term interest rates inverted. Insurance stocks, however, performed better than banks due to their relatively long funding maturity structure. This suggests that even during the same rate-hiking cycle, the performance of financial stocks can vary depending on economic conditions, the interest rate structure, and sector-specific fundamentals.
Currently, the fact that interest rates are rising again from already high levels and that geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the Middle East persists remains a concern. Analysts note that since financial firms have already benefited from improved earnings driven by the strong capital market performance in the first half of the year, the impact of the lower base effect must also be taken into account.
Nevertheless, SamsungSecurities maintained a positive outlook on domestic financial stocks. It cited their low valuations relative to global financial stocks and the potential for increased investment by domestic companies to create a virtuous cycle for the financial sector as key investment attractions.
For banks, the firm projected that the pace of interest income growth would accelerate as widening net interest margins (NIM) coincide with robust loan growth, and that the resulting improvement in return on equity (ROE) would lead to stronger shareholder returns. For the insurance sector, it forecast that while improvements in investment income driven by high absolute interest rates are becoming visible, insurance underwriting profits would also improve, supported by regulatory reforms and a reduction in excessive competition.
Ultimately, the direction of semiconductor and financial stocks following the Chuseok holiday is expected to depend on interest rate movements and the extent to which each sector’s earnings support those trends. In the semiconductor sector, while AI investment and earnings momentum continue, rising long-term interest rates could increase valuation pressures. Financial stocks, on the other hand, can expect improved profitability due to rising interest rates; however, the impact of already high interest rates on the economy and financial soundness remains a variable. Since it is difficult to view rising interest rates as unilaterally favorable to any single sector, it is necessary to monitor the trends in long-term interest rates, the economy, and corporate earnings together going forward.