[Edaily Reporter NA EUN-KYUNG ] Bets have even appeared on overseas prediction markets regarding whether Peptron, Inc.(087010)will sign a technology transfer agreement with U.S.-based Eli Lilly. As of the 7th, the deadline set by the betting platform, the probability of the deal being finalized had dropped to a single-digit figure. After the close of regular trading that day, Peptron, Inc. announced that the technology evaluation with Lilly had concluded and that a follow-up commercialization agreement had not been signed. Although the company maintains that the door remains open for future commercialization collaboration, Peptron, Inc.’s stock price on the Nextrade after-hours market fell 29.94% from the regular session’s closing price following the announcement, reflecting the market’s disappointment over the failure to secure a follow-up agreement.

According to the cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform Polymarket on the 7th, the market’s probability of a deal being concluded—as measured by a prediction asking, “Will Lilly adopt Peptron, Inc.’s SmartDepo technology by October 7?”—stood at 3% as of that afternoon. This is lower than the 6% figure displayed on the official page the previous day.

The criterion for determining the outcome of the bet is whether Lilly signs a contract securing commercial rights to SmartDepo by 11:59 p.m. KST today. An extension of the existing technology evaluation agreement or a joint development agreement alone will not be recognized as a successful outcome. However, it is important to distinguish between the probability of a bet being settled based on a specific deadline and the actual likelihood of the two companies signing a contract.

Polymarket is a global prediction market where participants trade shares whose value fluctuates based on the occurrence of specific events, such as election results or corporate mergers and acquisitions (M&A). It converts the prices traded by participants into probabilities and displays them. According to Reuters, just before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the cumulative trading volume in the market predicting the winner reached approximately $3.1 billion (about 4.2 trillion won). At the time, the market reflected a higher probability of a Trump victory, and Trump was indeed elected in the actual election.

Significant trading also took place regarding issues related to South Korea. Last year, the cumulative trading volume in the market predicting the “next President of South Korea” was approximately $290.75 million. In the individual market targeting candidate Lee Jae-myung alone, approximately $88.04 million was traded. However, this trading volume includes repeat trades and is therefore different from the amount of new funds injected by participants.

Whether pharmaceutical and biotech companies will close deals is also a subject of prediction. In a market asking whether Viking Therapeutics, a developer of obesity treatments, will be acquired by the end of this year, the cumulative trading volume stood at approximately $1.71 million (about 2.3 billion won) as of the time of this report. The probability of an acquisition was indicated at 12%. A market has also been opened to predict whether Merck (MSD) and Moderna will announce a merger or acquisition within the year.

The collaboration between Peptron, Inc. and Lilly began with a platform technology evaluation agreement signed on October 7, 2024. The purpose is to evaluate whether Peptron, Inc.’s SmartDepo technology can be applied to peptide compounds owned by Lilly to develop long-acting formulations that release the drug gradually. The specific compounds under evaluation and the research results have not been disclosed.

Meanwhile, Peptron, Inc. announced in a statement released that day that the technology evaluation period for the SmartDepo platform with Lilly had concluded. The company explained that it had completed research that was expanded beyond the initial plan, as well as additional technology evaluations, within the contract period, and had received all agreed-upon payments. However, it did not announce the signing of a follow-up commercialization agreement upon the conclusion of the evaluation.

Peptron, Inc. stated, “The conclusion of the technology evaluation period does not mean the end of future commercialization collaboration between the two companies,” adding that it plans to review and discuss commercialization collaboration by comprehensively considering future commercialization potential, mass-production feasibility, marketability, and intellectual property rights. The company has not yet provided specific details regarding whether, in what form, or when such follow-up collaboration might occur.

There remains a possibility that investor sentiment could be shaken, as the joint research—which spanned approximately two years following the extension of the evaluation period—has concluded without the announcement of a follow-up commercialization agreement. Another point of comparison is that Lilly signed an agreement last year to adopt Kamurus’ long-acting platform and expanded the scope of collaboration to include the amilin class this year. While the key question is whether Peptron, Inc. and Lilly will be able to translate their accumulated evaluation results into actual commercialization collaboration, the market is currently seeing a flood of sell-offs driven by disappointment over the lack of an immediate follow-up agreement.