[E-Daily Reporter JAEMIN SONG ] Prices for PC DRAM are projected to rise by up to 18% in the fourth quarter of this year due to a supply shortage resulting from the expansion of memory production for artificial intelligence (AI) servers. In particular, the supply shortage in the general-purpose memory market is expected to persist, as there are indications that domestic memory manufacturers may reduce PC DRAM supply by more than 40% next year.

According to an analysis by market research firm TrendForce on the 30th, contract prices for PC DRAM in the fourth quarter of this year are projected to rise by 13–18% compared to the previous quarter. Although this represents a slowdown from the 18–23% increase seen in the third quarter, the upward price trend driven by supply shortages appears to be continuing.

By product, the average contract price for 8GB DDR4 modules in October was $170, up 14.86% from $148 the previous month. The price of 16GB DDR5 modules also rose 11.34% to $275 from $247 the previous month. The price of 8GB DDR5 modules surged 24.06% month-over-month to $165.

Most fourth-quarter contract price negotiations are expected to be finalized in November. TrendForce forecasts that, given the significant supply shortage, November contract prices will also be slightly higher than those in October.

The primary reason for the price increase is the reallocation of production capacity by memory manufacturers. Analysts note that South Korean companies, such as SamsungElectronics and SK hynix, are reducing the supply of PC DRAM as they focus on producing more profitable server memory.

TrendForce noted that while domestic manufacturers’ PC DRAM production volume for next year was initially expected to decline by more than 20% year-over-year, the decline could exceed 40% when factoring in reduced purchases by PC manufacturers and U.S. memory companies securing volumes for their strategic clients.

A notable trend is that prices continue to rise despite sluggish demand in the PC market. PC manufacturers’ laptop shipments are expected to decline by 14% and 9% quarter-over-quarter in the third and fourth quarters, respectively. Consequently, PC manufacturers’ DRAM inventories have increased from 6 to 9 weeks at the end of the third quarter to 7 to 10 weeks at the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Despite slowing demand, suppliers are maintaining the upper hand in price negotiations by adjusting production volumes. However, due to strong resistance from customers to the 15–20% price increases proposed by suppliers, actual transactions are concentrated in the 10–15% increase range.

Price differentiation by product type was also evident in the NAND flash market. In October, Single-Level Cell (SLC) NAND prices rose by approximately 5–10% compared to the previous month. In particular, high-capacity products of 4 Gb or more—used in automobiles, industrial control devices, and low-Earth orbit satellites—recorded a price increase of around 9%.

In contrast, for multi-level cell (MLC) NAND, contract prices across all capacities remained at the same level as the previous month, as customers shifted to relatively cheaper SLC or high-density TLC products due to high prices and supply shortages.

TrendForce forecasts that while prices for high-capacity SLC products will continue to rise in the fourth quarter, MLC prices will face increasing downward pressure due to declining demand.