[Edaily Reporter Jung Du-ri ] Although South Korea’s trade surplus with the U.S. has surpassed $100 billion for the first time in history, the shadow of trade pressure is growing darker behind this record-breaking export performance. This is because the surplus, fueled by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, could result in a larger “investment bill” from the Trump administration. In particular, as pressure to participate in the Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) development project—whose business viability remains uncertain—has intensified, the calculations for trade authorities, who have achieved these export successes, have actually become more complicated.

According to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 2nd, exports to the U.S. from January through October this year totaled $176.716 billion, while imports amounted to $74.45 billion. This resulted in a trade surplus of $102.266 billion. With two months remaining until the end of the year, the surplus has already reached approximately 1.8 times the previous annual record of $55.6 billion set in 2024.

In October alone, a trade surplus of $17.578 billion with the U.S. was recorded. While exports to the U.S. rose 185.8% year-over-year to $24.898 billion, imports increased by only 16.5% to $7.32 billion, causing the surplus to expand to approximately 7.2 times the level of the same month last year. U.S. demand for AI infrastructure investment drove the export growth. From October 1 to 25, exports of semiconductors to the U.S. surged 497.0% year-over-year, while computer exports soared 816.3%. The total exceeded $100 billion for the first time in history, a decade after the Trump administration’s first term began in 2017, when the figure stood at $17.9 billion.

The problem is that the widening surplus could provide the U.S. with a pretext for additional pressure, citing the need to resolve trade imbalances.

Last year, the U.S. had threatened to impose 25% reciprocal tariffs on South Korean products but lowered the rate to 15% after South Korea pledged $350 billion in investment in the U.S. Tariffs on specific automotive and auto parts items were also adjusted from 25% to 15%. Given this context, the sharp rise in the trade surplus with the U.S. raises the possibility that the U.S. may press for the fulfillment of existing investment commitments or make additional demands.

South Korea and the U.S. formalized their investment commitments on the 1st of last month by announcing a strategic investment project in the U.S. Within the $200 billion strategic investment sector—excluding the $150 billion allocated to the shipbuilding industry out of the total $350 billion—the construction of the Encinal Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant in Texas was confirmed as the first project. The two countries also reached a broad agreement to proceed with the construction of eight large-scale nuclear power plants in the U.S. as the second project.

However, the Alaska LNG development project remains a potential source of further negotiations between South Korea and the U.S. Although the joint fact sheet from both countries lists it as a project on which they have agreed to begin review, President Trump is pressuring South Korea to invest by treating its participation as a foregone conclusion.

While the government must carefully assess whether to participate based on the principle of “commercial rationality,” it must also consider that rejecting U.S. demands could lead to pressure spreading to other trade issues, such as tariffs. The snowballing trade surplus with the U.S. is a factor that could further narrow the government’s room for negotiation.

Professor Koo Ki-bo of the Department of Global Trade at Soongsil University stated, “The government must emphasize to the U.S. that it is faithfully fulfilling its investment commitments based on already confirmed investments in the U.S. and the progress of follow-up negotiations.” He added, “While the Alaska LNG project should be carefully reviewed based on commercial rationality, in the shipbuilding sector, it is necessary to proactively present investment proposals that ensure profitability in consultation with private companies.”

The outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, scheduled for the 3rd (local time), is also considered a variable in trade policy. If the Republican Party maintains its majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the Trump administration could secure the momentum to continue its existing tariff policies. Conversely, if the party suffers a significant defeat in the election, there is a possibility of policy changes, so Korean companies must closely monitor U.S. moves following the election.

The possibility of additional tariffs being imposed, separate from existing U.S.-Korea trade agreements, is also a cause for concern. The U.S. is set to announce the results of a Section 301 investigation under the Trade Act, which examines whether excess production and excess capacity in trading partner countries are harming U.S. industries. Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs to be imposed on specific items on national security grounds, could also serve as an additional means of pressure.

Professor Heo Yoon of the Graduate School of International Studies at Sogang University predicted, “Even if the Democrats take control of Congress after the midterm elections, the Trump administration’s trade policies—which have been driven primarily by executive orders—are unlikely to change significantly.” He added, “However, if congressional oversight through investigations and budget reviews intensifies, uncertainty surrounding policy implementation could increase.” He further noted, “In particular, given the differences in stance between the two parties on AI and energy, we must prepare for potential confusion regarding related policies.”