[Edaily Reporter Choi Oh-hyun ] As the sharp rise in standard DRAM prices has reversed the profitability gap with High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), HBM prices are expected to rise even more sharply next year. Industry observers predict that HBM prices from SamsungElectronics and SK hynix could more than double compared to this year.

According to market research firm Counterpoint Research on the 2nd, the unit price of HBM4—currently around $2 per gigabit (Gb)—is projected to rise to $4 next year. Converted to gigabytes (GB), this represents a doubling in price, from $16 to $32. Market research firm TrendForce also predicted that the overall average selling price of HBM next year will rise by 121% compared to this year.

Currently, general-purpose DRAM prices have been rising sharply recently, surpassing the profitability of HBM. According to market research firm DRAMeXchange, the average fixed transaction price for 8Gb DDR4 modules for PCs on the 30th of last month was $27.50, nearly four times the price during the same period last year ($7). Converted to storage capacity, this amounts to $27.50 per 1 GB. In September, the average selling price of a 64GB DDR5 module for servers was $1,515, which works out to about $23.67 per 1GB.

In fact, during its first-quarter earnings conference call last April, SamsungElectronics explained, “It is true that general-purpose DRAM shows higher profitability than HBM,” adding, “While HBM prices are negotiated on an annual basis, general-purpose DRAM prices are negotiated quarterly, leading to a reversal in profitability due to rising prices.” This suggests that the price increases for HBM sold this year were not fully reflected in the pricing.

However, the profitability gap is expected to narrow again next year due to HBM price increases. SamsungElectronics and SK hynix recently announced during their third-quarter earnings conference calls that they had finalized negotiations on next year’s HBM supply volumes and prices. SamsungElectronics emphasized that it secured prices at its target level, while SK hynix highlighted that it had reflected the increased product value of HBM4 in its pricing.

In particular, HBM4 is expected to establish itself as the flagship product for both companies next year. SamsungElectronics reported that HBM4 revenue more than tripled quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter, accounting for 60% of total HBM revenue. SK hynix also projected that, starting in the fourth quarter, both HBM4 shipment volumes and revenue share will surpass those of its existing flagship product, HBM3E.

Consequently, expectations for improved earnings in the memory industry are growing. With the transition to HBM4, rising supply prices, and the continued strength in general-purpose DRAM prices, the two companies’ high-profit trend is expected to continue into next year. In the third quarter of this year, SamsungElectronics’ Device Solutions (DS) division recorded an operating profit margin of approximately 72%, while SK hynix recorded approximately 80%.