[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] Retail investors who boldly bought leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) amid a panic-stricken stock market are now smiling. Their bet—making net purchases of over 150 billion won even as the KOSPI plunged more than 3% on the 30th of last month—has paid off for now, thanks to the market’s rebound.

According to MP Doctor on the 2nd, the KOSPI closed at 5,859.08, up 128.34 points (2.24%) from the previous trading day. Although there were significant concerns about further declines in the domestic stock market after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 7.2% on the New York Stock Exchange last Friday, the market closed higher than expected.

Retail investors boldly bet on an index rebound following the sharp sell-off on the previous trading day. According to ETF Check, the top net buyer among retail investors on the 30th of last month was the “KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Leverage” ETF, which attracted 72.1 billion won in inflows. The “KODEX Leverage” ETF followed with 48.7 billion won. “KODEX Semiconductor Leverage” and “TIGER Semiconductor TOP 10 Leverage” also attracted 19 billion won and 13.4 billion won, respectively. The total net purchases by individual investors in these four leveraged ETFs reached 153.2 billion won.

The investment environment at the time was far from favorable. On the 30th of last month, the KOSPI fell as low as 5,599.42 during the trading session, marking a decline of 5.70%. The sharp drop in KOSPI 200 futures prices even triggered a sell-side circuit breaker. On the same day, the “KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Leverage” fell 8.07%, the “KODEX Leverage” dropped 7.64%, and the “KODEX Semiconductor Leverage” plummeted 12.92%.

Signs of a potential further decline in the U.S. semiconductor sector had already emerged. On the 29th of last month (local time), after the close of regular trading on the New York Stock Exchange, Amazon and Intel simultaneously released their earnings reports, causing investor sentiment to deteriorate sharply. In particular, Intel projected fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion—falling short of the market’s forecast of $17.1 billion—and saw its stock drop by around 20% in after-hours trading. The following day, the 30th, Intel’s stock plummeted 28.58% during regular trading, and major semiconductor stocks such as AMD (-10.88%) and NVIDIA (-4.22%) also fell sharply.

With the sharp decline in U.S. semiconductor stocks confirmed over the weekend, the domestic stock market was expected to open lower that day. However, sentiment reversed as bargain-hunting buying emerged amid perceptions that the decline had been excessive. On that day, KODEX Leverage and KODEX KOSDAQ 150 Leverage rose 4.56% and 4.28%, respectively. TIGER Semiconductor TOP 10 Leverage and KODEX Semiconductor Leverage surged 7.96% and 5.59%, respectively.

Despite this rebound, caution regarding further volatility remains. While the prevailing view among securities analysts is that the KOSPI will embark on a W-shaped recovery, opinions are divided on whether the market has already bottomed out.

Lee Chang-min, an analyst at KB Securities, stated, “We believe current stock prices have passed the peak of market concerns, so this is a time to focus on upside potential rather than the risk of further declines,” adding, “In particular, a W-shaped rebound is expected to begin in November and December as the gap between earnings and valuations narrows.”

On the other hand, Shin Seung-jin, head of the Investment Information Team at Samsung Securities, predicted, “If high oil prices and high interest rates persist due to geopolitical conflicts and macroeconomic uncertainty, the KOSPI could fall below the 5,150 level.”