[E-Daily kyoungeun kim Reporter] DaishinSecurities recently stated that concerns surrounding the artificial intelligence (AI) industry and the semiconductor sector were largely unfounded, and predicted that strong second-quarter earnings and upward revisions to earnings forecasts for the third quarter and beyond will once again drive the KOSPI’s upward trend.
Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at DaishinSecurities, stated in a weekly stock market outlook report published on the 6th, “Just as concerns were escalating—including geopolitical risks between the U.S. and Iran, market concentration, and fears that the short-term sharp decline would spiral into a worst-case scenario—a turnaround actually began.” He added, “Even at the KOSPI’s current 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 9 times, the index is poised to enter the 10,000 era.”
He noted that upward revisions to earnings forecasts are expected to increase upward pressure on the KOSPI and expand its upside potential, setting a target of 11,500 points, which he projected would be reached during the third quarter.
He assessed, “The 7,300 level on the KOSPI corresponds to a forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) of 6.32, which was an extremely undervalued range, close to the P/E ratio low of 6.27 during the financial crisis,” noting that the market has secured support at a significant index level and laid the groundwork to resume a full-fledged upward trend.
First, regarding external factors, he predicted, “With international oil prices remaining below $70, this will lead to a slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation indicators in June and July. This, in turn, will contribute to the downward stabilization of bond yields and the U.S. dollar, providing momentum for the rise in global stock markets and the KOSPI.” In fact, global stock markets generally closed higher in the first week of July (based on closing prices on the 3rd). The explanation is that concerns over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary tightening subsided as the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000—well below market expectations—and risk appetite strengthened as the Eurozone’s June year-over-year CPI came in at 2.8%, falling short of both forecasts and the previous month’s figure.

The report continued, “As the second-quarter earnings season kicks into high gear in mid-July, the upward trend is expected to resume and strengthen based on upward revisions to earnings forecasts,” adding, “Expectations for South Korean semiconductor earnings remain low relative to semiconductor price trends, Micron’s third-quarter results, and export momentum.” However, while earnings may fall short of the market consensus due to SamsungElectronics’ incentive payments, the analyst believes an earnings surprise is possible if those costs are excluded.
Regarding the recent headwinds that have shaken the semiconductor sector, the analyst noted, “Meta’s review of its cloud business was already announced in May, and Meta continues to invest in facilities and AI infrastructure,” adding, “Apple’s adoption of Chinese-made memory is also unlikely to be a realistic alternative, given the need to meet demand and political uncertainties.”
On the other hand, the analyst elaborated that the government’s three major mega-projects, the large-scale semiconductor and AI data center investment plans of the “ SamsungElectronics(005930) ” and “SK hynix(000660),” the collaboration between SamsungElectronics and Anthropic, and the outlook for DRAM price hikes in the third quarter all support medium- to long-term demand and profitability in the semiconductor sector, thereby exerting upward pressure on stock prices.