[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] As stock prices of SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660) continue to fluctuate day after day, concerns about a “peak-out” in the semiconductor sector are emerging in South Korea as well. This comes amid opinions that, although the semiconductor supercycle continues, the upward trend in memory prices—which has been driving stock prices higher—is unlikely to persist. While the securities industry still sees a high probability of continued upward momentum for semiconductor stocks, some analysts are adopting a more cautious stance, such as by lowering their target prices.

According to MP Doctor on the 8th, SamsungElectronics closed at 277,500 won, down 18,500 won (6.25%) from the previous trading day. SK hynix closed at 2,076,000 won, down 25,000 won (5.68%). As concerns about a semiconductor market peak spread, these stocks have fallen 12.7% and 11.4%, respectively, over the past two trading days.

Warnings about semiconductor stocks have also begun to emerge from the domestic securities industry. KIWOOM Securities lowered its target price for SamsungElectronics by 9.3% from 430,000 won to 390,000 won on the same day, citing expectations that earnings per share (EPS) growth will slow in the second half of the year. This is the second time this year that a domestic securities firm has issued a report lowering SamsungElectronics’ target price, following the first in March during the early stages of the Middle East war.

Park Yu-ak, an analyst at KIWOOM Securities, said, “PC and smartphone manufacturers are adopting a more conservative stance toward additional memory purchases,” adding, “It seems unlikely that the rate of memory price increases in the second half of the year will exceed expectations.” He continued, “While SamsungElectronics’ stock price has been on an upward trend driven by EPS growth, volatility is expected to increase in the second half due to changes in the memory industry.”

However, the prevailing market consensus is that it is still too early to discuss whether the semiconductor market has peaked. On the same day, KB Securities raised its target price for SamsungElectronics from 550,000 won to 600,000 won, while IBK Investment & Securities raised its target price from 350,000 won to 460,000 won. Contrary to concerns from some quarters, the memory supply shortage is expected to intensify further. Shareholder return policies, such as share buybacks and special dividends, are expected to materialize in the second half of the year, and share buybacks for performance-based compensation are also seen as factors driving the stock price higher.

Kim Dong-won, Head of Research at KB Securities, stated, “Recent concerns about AI are merely noise,” adding, “Excessive concerns present a buying opportunity.” He predicted, “Global AI investment will expand from $800 billion this year to $1.1 trillion next year and $1.5 trillion by 2028, prolonging the memory supply shortage,” adding, “With the diversification of AI applications in the future, demand for memory semiconductors is expected to grow 150-fold.”