[E-Daily Reporter Shin Ha-yeon ] Global investment bank Goldman Sachs has concluded that, despite the recent sharp decline in the domestic stock market, it is premature to argue that the semiconductor sector has reached a structural peak. The analysis suggests that the sharp drop in semiconductor stocks—such as SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660) —was largely driven by mechanical deleveraging (forced selling) of single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs), rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.

In a report titled “KOSPI Tests Key Technical Support Levels” published on the 14th, Goldman Sachs stated, “The sharp deleveraging (forced selling) of recently launched single-stock leveraged ETFs has amplified intraday volatility.”

According to the report, some 2x leveraged ETFs based on SamsungElectronics and SK hynix plummeted by more than 30% in a single day, prompting fund managers to sell additional underlying assets to meet their target leverage ratios. This triggered a vicious cycle in which falling stock prices led to further selling.

Goldman Sachs estimated that 62% of domestic institutional net selling stemmed from ETF liquidations. On the previous day, foreign investors and institutions recorded net sales of $1.13 billion and $1.5 billion, respectively, on the KOSPI market. Notably, the majority of foreign net selling—totaling $1.18 billion—came from passive funds, such as program trading.

On the other hand, analysis suggests that block trades (large-volume after-hours trading) by institutional investors were limited relative to the extent of the index’s decline, and—with the exception of some trend-following hedge funds—there was no significant active selling pressure.

Goldman Sachs also dismissed the notion, raised by some in the market, that the semiconductor industry has peaked. Although the stock prices of SamsungElectronics and SK hynix have recently undergone a sharp correction, earnings forecasts have not been revised downward, and since the expansion of production capacity (CAPA) is likely to be delayed until the second half of 2028, the firm believes the sector’s underlying fundamentals remain solid. It also viewed this correction as primarily driven by position liquidation due to liquidity concerns rather than a deterioration in fundamentals.

It identified the 6,800 level as a key technical support level for the KOSPI. If the 6,800 level breaks, the next support level is expected to be around 6,500—approximately 4.5% below the previous day’s closing price—and in the event of further declines, the 6,100–6,000 range is projected to serve as a stronger support level.

Goldman Sachs stated, “Considering that the KOSPI’s recent daily volatility has significantly exceeded the typical standard deviation, the 6,100–6,000 range could act as a stronger support level.”

It added, “Investors should selectively buy stocks in the memory semiconductor and technology sectors—where valuations have fallen significantly—for which they have high confidence, taking advantage of the extreme volatility.”