[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] Analysts predict that market indices will come under pressure as downward pressure stemming from Chinese semiconductors comes to the fore, even as macroeconomic headwinds have eased due to falling oil prices and declining government bond yields.
Han Ji-young, an analyst at KIWOOM Securities, offered this outlook in a report on the 28th, stating, “Although macroeconomic pressures have eased, the ongoing noise surrounding AI and semiconductors—which remain the market’s leading sectors—continues to be a cause for concern.”

He pointed out, “Semiconductor stocks were dragged down by the mere news that Chinese companies have begun producing deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography equipment, backed by government support.”
There are concerns that the introduction of Chinese-made DUV equipment could alleviate bottlenecks in equipment procurement and expand production capacity, potentially leading to an oversupply of general-purpose DRAM and intensifying global competition.
However, he analyzed, “Since the initial shipment is only five units (20 units in 2027), ASML’s dominance—with its goal of producing 130 units by 2026—remains intact,” adding, “Investor sentiment has weakened due to the correction in semiconductor stocks since July, causing the market to react sensitively to such news.”
Regarding the controversy over rotational investment surrounding NVIDIA, which signed a long-term cooperation agreement with SK hynix(000660)over the weekend, he predicted, “While this could be a factor causing short-term volatility, earnings reports from domestic semiconductor companies and U.S. hyperscalers starting mid-week could serve as a turning point.”
Despite expectations for a ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, concerns over semiconductor competition from China came to the fore, causing the New York stock market to close mixed on the 27th (local time). While the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.51%, the Nasdaq fell 0.18%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 2.2%. Semiconductor stocks fell across the board, including NVIDIA, which dropped 5.0%, as well as ASML (-5.8%), Micron (-2.3%), and SanDisk (-11.0%).
Tensions between the U.S. and Iran appear to be easing as hopes for negotiations resurface. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell back to the $80 range after attempting to break through the $90 mark, and the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note, which had been above 4.7%, dropped to the 4.64% range, easing macroeconomic pressures.
The domestic stock market opened higher the previous day on news of the U.S. halting airstrikes against Iran, but plummeted during the session amid concerns over memory chip competition following a sharp surge in the stock price of CXMT, a company listed on China’s STAR Market. However, buoyed by net buying from institutional and retail investors amid expectations for second-quarter earnings, the KOSPI closed up 1.0% and the KOSDAQ closed up 2.2%.
One analyst predicted, “Despite the favorable macroeconomic environment resulting from the easing of U.S.-Iran tensions, the market is expected to open lower today due to the ripple effects of weakness in U.S. semiconductor stocks caused by noise originating from China.”
Analysts note signs that volatility is peaking. As of the 27th, the KOSPI Volatility Index (VKOSPI) stood at 77.6 points, marking its fifth consecutive trading day of decline and hitting its lowest level in approximately 33 trading days since June 8. One analyst noted, “The weekly average for July has stabilized on a downward trend—91 → 84 → 85 → 82 points—and the share of single-stock leveraged products (including inverse ETFs) in KOSPI trading volume stands at 31.3%, below the July average (35.7%).” The analyst added, “This is a signal that the abnormal surge in volatility has passed its peak.”
He dismissed concerns about a supply-demand exodus triggered by CXMT. “Although the stock price surged due to the nature of the over-the-counter market—where there are no price limits during the initial listing phase and the float is only around 6%—CXMT is not yet a stock eligible for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program, which allows foreign investors to trade freely,” the analyst explained. “While there may be a psychological impact, the potential for an actual exodus of supply and demand is limited.” He added, “Given that we are in a phase where the stock has reached its valuation bottom and volatility has peaked, a strategy of buying in installments, focusing on leading stocks, will be effective during a correction.”