[Edaily Reporter LEE SEON-WOO ] Growth in the global tourism market has slowed to half the level seen a year ago due to the fallout from the war in the Middle East. According to the World Tourism Indicators recently released by the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the number of international tourists worldwide in the first quarter of this year (January–March) was approximately 307 million, an increase of about 2% (6 million) compared to the same period last year. This figure is half of last year’s overall growth rate of 4% and falls significantly short of the growth rate for the first quarter of last year, which was close to 5%.
While global tourist numbers had maintained a steady growth rate of 2.5% on average in January and February—before the war broke out—the growth rate plummeted to 0.4% in March as the war in the Middle East intensified. This was due to the Middle East region’s tourist growth rate, which had been running at nearly 40% compared to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels last year, shifting to a 14% contraction in the first quarter. In fact, during the same period, Europe and Africa recorded 4% growth, Asia-Pacific 3%, and the Americas—including North and South America—2%. Skift, a global travel industry publication, analyzed the situation, stating, “Although growth has slowed, overall tourism demand has not disappeared; rather, it is shifting to regions outside the Middle East, such as Europe and Africa.”
The problem is that the war in the Middle East—the primary factor behind the slowdown in growth—is not only becoming protracted but is also spreading across the entire region. The United States, Israel, and Iran, which had agreed to a temporary ceasefire in June, found themselves once again in a state of extreme tension in July following a large-scale U.S. airstrike in response to Iran’s attacks on merchant ships bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. There are also signs that the front lines are expanding across the entire Middle East, as Iran has targeted countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Qatar.

Although tourism demand has not declined in the short term despite the adverse effects of the war, maintaining its growth trend, the possibility of a shift to negative growth cannot be ruled out if tensions persist and the conflict expands in scope. In a panel survey conducted by the World Tourism Organization, 64% of respondents stated that “the conflict in the Middle East is having a negative impact on tourism demand in their country,” and 21% of those respondents said “the impact is quite significant.”
The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) and Oxford Economics are also closely monitoring the war in the Middle East as the biggest negative factor affecting the global tourism market this year. The WTTC predicted that the war would cause the Middle Eastern tourism industry to suffer an average daily loss of $600 million (approximately 857.3 billion won). Before the war broke out, the WTTC had projected total tourism revenue (visitor spending) for the Middle East this year at $207 billion (approximately 296 trillion won). Oxford Economics forecasted that, if the war drags on, the Middle East tourism market would incur economic losses of $56 billion (approximately 80 trillion won). Growth rates in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries—including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Qatar—which had been projected to rise by 8% by year-end, are now expected to shift to a decline of up to 26%.
Flight operations by Middle Eastern airlines, which had plummeted by nearly 47% following the outbreak of the war, had recovered to as much as 96% of pre-war levels by the end of July following a tentative ceasefire, but have once again contracted due to the re-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. According to Skift and other sources, in March and April alone—the early stages of the war—nine major airports in the Middle East, including Dubai, recorded a total loss of $1 billion (approximately 1.43 trillion won) as passenger numbers fell by about 27 million compared to the previous year.
The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) recently extended its flight ban over the Middle East—including Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon—until the end of August. The World Tourism Organization, which had projected a 3–4% increase in global tourist numbers at the beginning of the year, now estimates that the growth rate could be 1–2 percentage points lower than previously forecast due to the prolonged and escalating conflict in the Middle East.