[Edaily Reporter Jeong Yun-ji ] On the 11th, it was revealed that the nationwide apartment occupancy outlook index, which had been rising sharply for three consecutive months, fell slightly this month. In particular, the occupancy outlook index for the Seoul metropolitan area dropped significantly, leading the overall decline in the index. This is believed to be influenced by factors such as stricter mortgage lending standards and increased wait-and-see sentiment following the designation of additional regulated areas.
According to a survey of housing developers conducted by the Korea Housing Industry Research Institute (KHIRI), the nationwide apartment move-in outlook index for August stood at 94.4, down 3.1 points (p) from the previous month.
The national apartment move-in outlook index had shown a steep upward trend for the past three consecutive months. Factors driving the rise included improved financing conditions due to a booming stock market and expectations of future supply shortages. However, analysts suggest that the upward trend has slowed in the second half of the year as stock market volatility has increased and financial institutions have tightened their mortgage lending standards.
By region, the decline was most pronounced in the Seoul Metropolitan Area. The Seoul Metropolitan Area’s occupancy outlook index fell by 13.2 points, from 102.6 to 89.4. Seoul recorded 100, down 18.7 points, while Gyeonggi Province also fell by 15.7 points to 84.3. Incheon dropped by 5.4 points, from 89.2 to 83.8.
This is believed to be the result of a combination of factors: increased market caution following the designation of Hwaseong’s Dongtan, Yongin’s Giheung, and Guri as regulated areas last month, coupled with changes in financing conditions such as stricter mortgage lending standards.
The housing market outlook index for metropolitan cities also fell by 9.4 points, from 103.3 to 93.9. Daegu recorded the largest decline, dropping 29.3 points from 111.1 to 81.8. This was followed by △Daejeon at 92.8 (down 13.4 points), △Ulsan at 100 (down 7.6 points), △Busan at 88.8 (down 5.3 points), and △Sejong at 100 (down 7.6 points).
Among the metropolitan cities, only Gwangju—which has been mentioned as a candidate site for the Honam semiconductor cluster—saw an increase of 6.7 points, rising from 93.3 to 100. This appears to reflect expectations for regional industrial revitalization and expanded investment.
In contrast, the occupancy outlook index for provincial regions rose by 5.5 points, from 91.3 to 96.8. Five regions—Jeju, South Jeolla, Gangwon, North Jeolla, and North Gyeongsang—saw increases, while South Chungcheong fell by 8.4 points, and North Chungcheong and South Gyeongsang remained unchanged. Analysts attribute the improved occupancy outlook in provincial regions to the relatively limited impact of financial regulations and policy uncertainties compared to the Seoul Metropolitan Area and metropolitan cities.
The move-in rate also fell slightly nationwide compared to the previous month. The nationwide apartment move-in rate in July was 68.1%, down 1.8 percentage points from June (69.9%).
The move-in rate in the Seoul Metropolitan Area rose by 2.4 percentage points, from 83% to 85.4%. Seoul recorded 90.5%, up 4.1 percentage points, while Incheon and Gyeonggi Province each rose by 1.5 percentage points to 82.9%.
In contrast, the occupancy rate in the five major metropolitan cities and Sejong rose by 4 percentage points, from 62.9% to 58.9%. In other regions, the rate fell by 1.7 percentage points, from 70.2% to 68.5%.
Looking at the reasons for delayed move-in, delays in selling existing homes accounted for the largest share at 97%. This was followed by failure to secure a loan for the final payment at 31.5%, failure to secure a tenant at 16.7%, and delays in selling pre-sale rights at 3.7%.
In particular, the proportion of cases where a loan for the final payment had not been secured rose by 5 percentage points compared to the previous month (26.5%). This is interpreted as the financing burden on prospective move-in residents having increased as commercial banks tightened their mortgage lending criteria in the second half of the year.
The Korea Housing Finance Research Institute (KHFI) assessed that the financing burden on prospective residents in July increased as the issuance of final payment loans contracted due to stricter management of total household loan volumes. However, it expects that if the financial authorities implement the proposed partial relaxation of aggregate lending limits for projects with signed pre-sale contracts—a measure currently under review—it will have a positive impact on future move-in conditions for new apartments.
Furthermore, the Institute emphasized, “Since the government’s tax reform plan includes a shift to a value-based taxation system and expanded tax incentives to revitalize local housing markets, we must monitor how this will affect the housing market and move-in conditions going forward.”
