[Edaily Reporter Cho Yong Seok ] As investor dissatisfaction grows amid a sharp decline in semiconductor stocks, market attention is focusing on the shareholder return plans of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. With the two companies’ combined operating profit approaching 250 trillion won in the first half of the year alone, thanks to the AI (artificial intelligence) memory boom, investor expectations for dividends are also on the rise.

According to industry sources on the 12th, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are reportedly reviewing various shareholder return measures for the third quarter, including increased dividends and share buybacks and cancellations.

The securities industry believes there is a high probability that SK Hynix—which had previously announced it would make an announcement during the third quarter—will bring the timing forward to August. This is because, with stock prices having fallen sharply, the longer the announcement is delayed, the greater the burden on both companies could become. Although a specific schedule has not been finalized, there is speculation that the two companies may unveil their measures around the same time.

Earlier, during its second-quarter earnings conference call at the end of last month, Samsung Electronics announced, “The board of directors and management are engaged in in-depth discussions regarding specific implementation plans for shareholder return policies—including special dividends—as well as future shareholder return policies.”

There are two main areas of interest regarding Samsung Electronics. First is whether the company will implement additional shareholder returns—such as special dividends or share buybacks and cancellations—for the remainder of this year.

Samsung Electronics is implementing a policy to return 50% of its free cash flow (FCF) generated over the three-year period from 2024 to 2026 to shareholders and to pay an annual regular dividend of 9.8 trillion won. Each year, the company calculates its remaining funds, and if sufficient funds are available, it considers additional shareholder returns beyond the regular dividend.

DS Investment & Securities estimates that Samsung Electronics could return an additional 161.3 trillion won—calculated by subtracting the total regular dividends from 50% of the cumulative free cash flow (FCF) for the three-year period (2024–2026). The firm also forecasts that up to 40% of this amount could be used for special dividends, with the remainder allocated to share buybacks and cancellations.

The second point is the newly announced shareholder return policy for 2027–2029.

KB Securities estimated, “For the new shareholder return policy to be announced shortly, the annual scale of shareholder returns is expected to increase more than tenfold compared to the current level (9.8 trillion won per year),” adding, “Over the next three years, the total shareholder returns are projected to reach at least 600–700 trillion won, with a dividend yield of 7–15% based on cash dividends.” This is believed to be the basis for the “200 trillion won in annual returns” forecast circulating in the securities industry.

Forecasts suggest that SK Hynix could return between 40 trillion and 100 trillion won to shareholders. SK Hynix plans to allocate 50% of the free cash flow (FCF) generated over the three-year period from 2025 to 2027 toward shareholder returns.

Mirae Asset Securities analyzes that shareholder returns of around 40 trillion won are possible. On the other hand, Daishin Securities believes that since the target of 100 trillion won in net cash—presented at the annual shareholders’ meeting earlier this year—may have already been achieved due to capital inflows from the issuance of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), shareholder returns of up to 100 trillion won are possible when combining share buybacks and cancellations with special dividends.

Some observers predict that, given both companies are currently constructing semiconductor fabs on an unprecedented scale, it will be difficult for them to focus solely on shareholder returns.

In fact, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix plan to invest 360 trillion won and 600 trillion won, respectively, in the Yongin Semiconductor Cluster. They also plan to invest 400 trillion won each in the Honam Semiconductor Cluster, a project recently promoted by the government.

The government recently announced that the goal is to complete the first phase of the Honam Semiconductor Cluster by 2029. If they are to adhere to this plan, securing the cash reserves needed for facility investments may take priority over shareholder returns.

However, both companies have made it clear that neither the specific timing of the announcements nor the scale of the returns has been finalized. A Samsung Electronics official stated, “There is currently no schedule that can be officially confirmed.” An SK Hynix official also said, “Apart from the announcement during the third quarter as disclosed in our public filing, no specific date has been set,” adding, “Our intention is to communicate with the market as soon as a plan is finalized.”