[Edaily Reporter JAEMIN SONG ] SamsungElectronics is expected to become the first South Korean company to enter the era of quarterly operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won. Buoyed by a boom in the memory semiconductor market driven by growing demand for artificial intelligence (AI), the company is highly likely to set another record for its best-ever quarterly performance, following its achievement in the second quarter. Industry and market attention has already shifted beyond the “100 trillion won milestone” to whether the growth momentum, led by sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4), will continue beyond the fourth quarter.
According to financial information provider FnGuide Inc. on the 5th, the consensus estimates for SamsungElectronics’ third-quarter revenue and operating profit this year are 200.7657 trillion won and 106.9435 trillion won, respectively. It is highly likely that the company will surpass the second quarter’s revenue of 171.4995 trillion won and operating profit of 89.4924 trillion won in just one quarter. SamsungElectronics will announce its preliminary third-quarter results on the 8th. Although some securities firms have lowered their expectations due to the recent decline in the won-dollar exchange rate, the likelihood of operating profit exceeding 100 trillion won remains high.
The improvement in earnings is expected to have been driven by the memory business within the Semiconductor (DS) division. Amid strong demand for not only HBM but also server DRAM such as DDR5 and enterprise solid-state drives (eSSDs)—driven by Big Tech’s expanding investments in AI data centers—memory prices remain high due to supply shortages. Analysts suggest that the high profitability of the memory business likely offset the slump in other segments, such as foundry, System LSI, TVs, and home appliances.
In particular, HBM4’s contribution to earnings is expected to grow significantly starting this quarter. SamsungElectronics began full-scale mass production of HBM4 in the first half of this year and is rapidly increasing production volumes. During the second-quarter earnings conference call, the company projected that third-quarter HBM4 revenue would more than triple compared to the previous quarter. SamsungSecurities estimates that total HBM revenue for the third quarter will rise by approximately 60% compared to the previous quarter. The expansion of the high-margin HBM4 segment is driving not only volume growth but also improved profitability.
The key issue lies in the fourth quarter and beyond. The expansion of HBM production is also affecting the supply of general-purpose DRAM. SamsungElectronics recently projected that HBM will account for about 30% of the industry’s total DRAM wafer production capacity next year. This represents an increase from the current level of about 20%; as more of the limited production capacity is allocated to HBM, the supply capacity for general-purpose DRAM used in servers, PCs, and mobile devices will inevitably shrink.
In fact, the upward trend in memory prices is expected to continue. Market research firm TrendForce forecasts that contract prices for general-purpose DRAM will rise by 10–15% in the fourth quarter compared to the previous quarter, while NAND flash prices will increase by 15–20%. This is because memory manufacturers are prioritizing their cutting-edge production capacity for high-margin HBM and server products, leading to ongoing supply shortages, particularly for server DRAM. From SamsungElectronics’ perspective, the company can expect both expanded HBM4 sales and rising general-purpose memory prices to simultaneously boost its earnings.
The recent strong earnings from U.S.-based Micron are also adding momentum to the robust memory market. While memory demand is expanding beyond AI training to include inference and Agent AI, it is difficult to significantly increase supply in the short term, leading to forecasts that a supplier-dominated market will persist.
Kim Un-ho, an analyst at IBK Investment & Securities, said, “The memory supply shortage is expected to persist for the long term,” adding, “As a result, profitability will remain at current levels, and profit margins will grow steadily.”
