[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] On the 13th, SKSecurities lowered its target price for MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES(006800)from 51,000 won to 42,000 won, citing the possibility of increased earnings volatility due to fluctuations in SpaceX’s stock price. However, it maintained its “Buy” investment rating, noting that second-quarter net income attributable to controlling shareholders significantly exceeded market expectations.

Jang Young-im, an analyst at SKSecurities, stated in a report released that day, “In the short term, the potential for significant earnings volatility related to SpaceX is likely to weigh on MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES’ stock price.” The target price reduction reflects an upward revision to the cost of equity (COE) due to a widening risk premium.

MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES’ second-quarter net income attributable to controlling shareholders was 1.8959 trillion won, a 370.1% increase from the same period last year. This represents a 90.3% increase from the previous quarter and exceeded the consensus estimate by 25.9%.

The strong performance is attributed to valuation gains from SpaceX. Consolidated pre-tax profit for the second quarter was 2.5287 trillion won, of which valuation gains from SpaceX accounted for 1.6242 trillion won. Excluding this, consolidated pre-tax profit was 904.4 billion won, a 117.5% increase from the previous quarter.

Fair value gains and losses on consolidated investment assets reached a record high of 1.6407 trillion won. Again, gains from SpaceX accounted for the majority of this figure.

Improvements were also seen in the core business. Brokerage commission revenue rose 36.2% from the previous quarter, driven by strong stock market performance. Asset management fee revenue rose 14.1% as the wrap account, fund sales, and retirement pension segments grew. Investment banking (IB) and other fee revenue increased by 37.5%, driven by contributions from acquisition financing, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) advisory, and real estate project financing (PF).

Operating profit, excluding the impact of SpaceX, also rose 170.1% compared to the previous quarter. The strong stock market drove improvements in operating profit, including equity management and sales and trading (S&T).

However, analysts suggest that earnings volatility may increase in the second half of the year. Recently, SpaceX’s stock price has fallen to the $130 range, which is about 20% lower than the $170 level recorded at the end of June.

SKSecurities estimated that for every $1 fluctuation in SpaceX’s stock price, MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES’ related unrealized gains would change by approximately 29 billion won. With about half of the third quarter still remaining, the firm predicted that the future trend of SpaceX’s stock price would determine the outlook for third-quarter earnings.

SKSecurities raised its 2026 consolidated net income forecast for MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES’ controlling shareholders to 3.5298 trillion won, a 2.1% increase. This adjustment reflects a downward revision to third-quarter earnings estimates in light of the recent decline in SpaceX’s stock price, despite a significant improvement in second-quarter results.

Analyst Jang stated, “MIRAE ASSET SECURITIES is devising measures to minimize profit volatility stemming from SpaceX,” adding, “Since its exposure to financial assets measured at fair value through profit or loss (FVPL) remains significant, measures to mitigate volatility are necessary.”

He added, “Not only are short-term earnings less predictable, but so is the predictability of dividends,” noting, “We will need to monitor the company’s shareholder return policy for the next three years when the third-quarter earnings are announced.”

He gave a positive assessment of the expansion of client assets and the strengthening of overseas operations. This is because client assets are growing, particularly in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and retirement pensions. Recurring profit—excluding valuation gains from SpaceX at overseas subsidiaries—also exceeded 100 billion won, indicating improved earnings resilience. The launch of the Global Mobile Trading System (MTS) by the Hong Kong subsidiary and efforts to acquire local securities firms in the U.S. and Japan were also cited as future growth drivers.