On the 18th (local time), The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an editorial titled “Trump Courts Kim Jong-un Again,” criticizing President Trump’s decision to scale back the U.S.-South Korea joint exercises as “a signal that weakens deterrence against North Korea and readiness.” Citing North Korea’s annual objections to the joint exercises, the editorial assessed that this decision is effectively a conciliatory measure intended to appease Chairman Kim.
President Trump had previously instructed the U.S. Department of Defense to “significantly scale back” the South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises, citing his “very good relationship” with Chairman Kim as the reason. He argued that while North Korea has not posed a threat and has shown respect for the United States during his presidency, the joint exercises could send a hostile signal. He also expressed dissatisfaction that South Korea had not joined U.S. efforts toward Iran’s denuclearization.
The U.S. Associated Press (AP) went a step further that day, analyzing that this decision raises concerns not only about U.S.-South Korea relations but also about broader U.S. security interests in Asia. The AP stated, “By making a decision that appears to prioritize North Korea’s position over that of its ally, South Korea, President Trump is fueling anxiety about U.S. security commitments not only in South Korea but also in Japan, Taiwan, and among North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies.”
Dan Fried, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs in the George W. Bush administration, told the AP that he could “hardly see any U.S. national interest” in the decision, noting that it weakens South Korea and Japan, unsettles Taiwan and NATO, and strengthens China and North Korea. Danny Russel, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific under the Barack Obama administration, also criticized it as a “backward approach that punishes allies while emboldening enemies.”
The U.S. foreign policy magazine *Foreign Policy* (FP) also noted in an article titled “Is Trump Choosing South Korea Over North Korea?” that President Trump is scaling back joint military exercises with Seoul in an effort to appease Pyongyang. It has been pointed out that although President Trump has once again played the “negotiating with North Korea through scaled-back exercises” card—a strategy he used during his first term—the risks have grown significantly because North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities have advanced considerably since then.
Reuters also assessed that President Trump’s decision has “put the U.S.-South Korea alliance, which has lasted for over 70 years, to the test once again.” In particular, it noted that even after the 2018 U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore, President Trump suspended or scaled back large-scale U.S.-South Korea exercises, but negotiations on North Korea’s denuclearization ultimately collapsed, and North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities have, in fact, expanded since then. With North Korea recently strengthening its military cooperation with Russia as well, the security environment has deteriorated further compared to his first term.
U.S. media outlets are also highlighting the possibility that this decision could fuel calls within South Korea for the country to develop its own nuclear arsenal. The AP reported on analysis by former foreign policy and security officials suggesting that if confidence in U.S. extended deterrence wavers, public opinion in South Korea advocating for the country to possess its own nuclear weapons could grow even stronger. The Wall Street Journal also predicted that if the perception that the U.S. is an unreliable ally spreads across Asia and Europe, arguments for South Korea to secure its own nuclear deterrent could gain traction.
Analysts also commonly pointed out that China could reap collateral benefits. They argued that if the U.S. reduces its aircraft carrier presence in the Western Pacific—already strained by military operations in the Middle East—and further scales back U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, China could use this to reinforce its argument to regional nations that U.S. security commitments are unreliable. The WSJ also noted that China has recently been increasing military pressure on Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.
Ultimately, the concerns raised by the U.S. media are focused less on whether President Trump can create a breakthrough to resume North Korea-U.S. talks and more on the fact that the process “appears to be making concessions to North Korea first while weakening the alliance.” Unlike in 2018, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities have become significantly more advanced, and military cooperation between North Korea and Russia has strengthened; consequently, there is growing wariness regarding the decision to once again resort to scaling back exercises, as was done in the past.
