[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] Last weekend on the 21st (local time), the New York stock market rebounded on the back of strong U.S. services sector data, but long-term interest rates dominated the market throughout the week. As the U.S. Treasury’s strategy of expanding Treasury buybacks failed to take effect, the yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose back to the 5.27% range, while the 10-year yield climbed to 4.74%.
Neil Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, stated on the 23rd (local time) that while the Treasury market is functioning normally, he is not convinced that inflation will return to the target level in the short term. Bloomberg News analyzed that Treasury Secretary Bessent’s attempts to lower long-term interest rates are hitting a wall due to structural factors driving the market.
Here are the key news items to watch before the market opens on the 24th.
◇ Dow rebounded 0.98%, but all three major indices posted weekly losses
- On the 21st (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,277.01, up 0.98% from the previous trading day. The S&P 500 Index rose 0.43% to 7,674.37, and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed up 0.44% at 26,180.46.
- The rally was driven by stronger-than-expected economic indicators. According to S&P Global, U.S. service sector activity in August recorded its fastest growth in 20 months. The overall growth in business activity also reached its strongest level in more than four years.
-However, on a weekly basis, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed higher for the third consecutive week. The Dow also fell for the second consecutive week. Tech stocks fell more than 3% over the week.

◇Long-term interest rates remain stubborn despite buybacks… “In the end, the market wins”
-When the U.S. Treasury announced on the 19th that it would at least double the scale of its long-term Treasury buybacks, Treasury yields plummeted, but the effect lasted only a day. The 10-year Treasury yield rose back to 4.737%, and the 30-year yield rose to 5.276%. The 30-year yield remains near its highest level since 2007.
- Mark Malek, CIO of Muriel Siebert & Co., assessed, “As long as structural factors—such as inflation uncertainty, massive fiscal deficits, Treasury supply, and the term premium—remain unresolved, it will be difficult to keep long-term rates in check through buybacks alone.” Patrick Armstrong, CIO of Plurimillions, pointed out, “When trying to control 30-year yields, unless the Fed has an unlimited balance sheet, the market will ultimately prevail.”
- Leo Kelly, CEO of Burden Capital Advisors, warned, “While the market has currently adapted to a 10-year yield of 4–5%, it will react negatively if it rises to 6–7%,” suggesting that if long-term interest rates continue to rise and tensions in the Middle East persist, the stock market could enter a correction phase around fall.
◇Besant’s “TREASURE Twist”… Bloomberg: “Out of Control”
- Bloomberg reported on the 23rd (local time) that while Secretary Bessent is actively intervening in the bond market to lower long-term Treasury yields, the fundamental factors driving the market are beyond his control. Secretary Bessent dubbed the expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks the “Treasury Twist” and stated his intention to reshape the yield curve, but the effect faded within a day.
- Matt King, founder of Satori Insights, pointed out, “Any path to sustainably lowering long-term rates will ultimately require choices the administration does not want to make.” He explained that long-term rates can only drop significantly if the U.S. budget deficit is reduced, the stock market declines, or AI investment slows down.
- With U.S. national debt exceeding $40 trillion, competition for capital is intensifying as major tech companies—which are expanding their AI investments—are also seeing a surge in corporate bond issuance. Priya Misra, a portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, assessed that “the U.S. economy is robust and a global competition for capital is underway,” adding that “rising interest rates are reasonable.”
◇NVIDIA Announces 15% Price Hike for AI Servers
-Bloomberg reported on the 22nd (local time), citing sources, that NVIDIA has notified major clients such as Microsoft, Google, and Oracle that it will raise prices for AI chip servers by more than 15% starting with shipments in early next year. Both the latest “Vera Rubin” and existing “Grace Blackwell”-based systems are subject to the price increase.
-Analysts note that even NVIDIA, the world’s largest company by market capitalization, has passed on rising memory prices to its customers. The performance of AI accelerators depends on their combination with DRAM, and three companies— SamsungElectronics(005930),SK hynix(000660), and Micron—account for the majority of DRAM production.
-Bloomberg reported that “this price hike will place an additional burden on AI data center construction plans.” It is assessed that whether Big Tech companies expand their independent AI semiconductor initiatives ultimately depends on their ability to secure memory.
◇Kashkari: “Treasury Market Normal… Not Convinced Inflation Will Return in the Short Term”
- Neil Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, appeared on CBS on the 23rd (local time) and confirmed that the Treasury market is functioning normally, stating, “There are all signs that the U.S. Treasury market is operating normally.” He explained that this allows the Fed to focus on using the federal funds rate as its primary policy tool.
- President Kashkari was one of three members who dissented in favor of a rate hike at the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. While reiterating his concern that day by saying, “I’m not confident that inflation will return to target in the short term,” he avoided commenting on the September meeting, noting, “We’ll need to see more data, but I don’t want to prejudge the next meeting.”
◇ Key Events on Wall Street This Week… NVIDIA Earnings & Jackson Hole Symposium
- Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to provide further details on the plan to address the Treasury market on the 24th. NVIDIA’s earnings release on the 26th is expected to serve as a key indicator of whether the AI investment cycle will continue. On the 28th, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wash will deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
-The key question on Wall Street this week is expected to be whether buybacks alone can keep long-term interest rates in check, or whether the market will demand more fundamental fiscal and monetary policy solutions from policymakers.