[Edaily Reporter Bang Sung Hoon ] Kevin Warsh, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), is set to take the stage at the Jackson Hole symposium for the first time since taking office. The market is on the edge of its seat, waiting to see if he will finally speak.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the Jackson Hole Symposium—an annual economic policy symposium—will be held for three days starting on the 27th (local time) in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Chairman Warsh’s keynote address is scheduled for 8:00 a.m. local time on the 28th, which is 11:00 p.m. on the 28th in Korea. This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

This event is particularly significant because it marks the first time Chair Wash will provide a detailed explanation of his policy vision since taking office last May. Past Federal Reserve chairs have used the Jackson Hole forum to outline their monetary policy plans. This is, in effect, the market’s first opportunity to gain insight into how the new leader assesses the situation.

The issue is that he has been extremely tight-lipped so far. Shortly after taking office, Chairman Wash removed the “forward guidance” from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement in June—the guidance that signals in advance how interest rates will be set going forward.

He did not provide his own forecast in the “dot plot”—which plots committee members’ interest rate projections as dots—and is considering eliminating it entirely by the end of the year. His stance is that press conferences should be held only when there is truly significant news.

While the intent is to let the market analyze the data and make its own judgments, the side effects are significant. The Financial Times (FT) pointed out that as the Fed has reduced its communication, market distrust has grown, and this is driving up long-term Treasury yields.

In fact, warning signs are flashing across the U.S. economy. National debt surpassed $40 trillion (approximately 5,544 trillion won) for the first time in history this month, and yields on 30-year Treasury bonds are fluctuating at their highest levels in 19 years. In addition to volatile international oil prices caused by the protracted war in the Middle East, the record-breaking flood of corporate bonds issued by Big Tech companies to fund artificial intelligence (AI) investments is also adding to the pressure.

The lack of coordination between the administration and the central bank is another variable. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced on the 19th a plan to double the scale of Treasury buybacks. However, Federal Reserve Chair Wash, speaking immediately after the FOMC meeting on the 29th of last month, stated that “financial markets are tightening on their own,” signaling that there is no need for the Fed to rush into raising interest rates.

The market is considering two scenarios. Bank of America (BofA) predicted that if Chair Wash clearly signals her determination to curb inflation and her willingness to resume rate hikes if necessary, the market will stabilize; conversely, if she remains tight-lipped, the 30-year yield could test the 5.5% high. The seven-week gap between the July and September FOMC meetings is the longest of the year, and with summer trading typically light, even a single remark could cause significant price volatility.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently estimates a 61.6% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the current 3.50–3.75% range at the FOMC meeting on the 15th and 16th of next month, and a 38.4% probability of a rate hike.

Meanwhile, Bank of Korea Governor Shin Hyun-song and Monetary Policy Committee member Jang Yong-sung will also attend this year’s Jackson Hole Symposium. This marks the first time in four years—since former Governor Lee Chang-yong attended in 2022—that a Bank of Korea governor has participated in the event.