[Edaily Reporter KIM YOON-JEONG ] The KOSPI, which has stalled just short of the 7,000 mark, is set to digest U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks for the first time this week. With Chairman Warsh expressing strong concern about inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium—which has sharply raised the likelihood of a U.S. interest rate hike in September—a series of U.S. employment and manufacturing indicators are also scheduled to be released. The securities industry is wary of the possibility of increased short-term volatility as interest rate uncertainty has resurfaced, but is also focusing on earnings growth—particularly in the semiconductor sector—and the potential for the rally to spread to other sectors.

According to MP Doctor on the 30th, the KOSPI closed last week at 6,788.88, up 1.40% from the previous week. On the 27th, the index rose as high as 6,996.12 during the session, coming within striking distance of the 7,000 mark, but it gave up those gains the following day, falling 1.79%. Despite NVIDIA’s strong earnings, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 3.38% and 4.45%, respectively, on the 28th due to the U.S. review of semiconductor tariffs and profit-taking in the memory semiconductor sector.
◇ Wash’s Hawkish Remarks to Be Reflected in KOSPI for the First Time This Week
The first test for the domestic stock market this week is Chair Wash’s remarks at Jackson Hole. On the 28th (local time), Chair Wash stated, “From the perspective of price stability—one of our mandates—the relevant indicators are becoming increasingly concerning,” adding, “We must be confident that the underlying inflation rate is moving toward the target at a clear and sufficient pace.” He went on to emphasize, “Otherwise, we have work to do.”
The market interpreted this as a statement leaving the door open to further tightening. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch, the probability of a 0.25 percentage point increase in the benchmark interest rate at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has risen to 57.5%. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 4.72%, and on the 28th, the Nasdaq fell 0.52% and the S&P 500 fell 0.25% on the New York Stock Exchange.
Uncertainty surrounding the semiconductor sector also persists. The Trump administration is considering imposing new tariffs not only on semiconductors but also on finished products containing them—such as laptops, gaming consoles, and data center servers—which is weighing on investor sentiment. Although the specific tariff rates, target products, and implementation timeline have not been finalized, Daishin Securities analyzed that the possibility of the tariff scope expanding to finished products has acted as a burden on the domestic semiconductor sector as a whole.
◇ U.S. Employment Data Will Determine Interest Rate Direction… September FOMC as a “Barometer”
Chair Warsh’s remarks have further heightened the importance of this week’s U.S. economic indicators. Starting with the August Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index on the 1st (local time), the August employment report will be released on the 4th.
The Bloomberg consensus forecast predicts that nonfarm payrolls for August will increase by 60,000 from the previous month, with the unemployment rate standing at 4.2%. NH Investment & Securities projected that, considering seasonal factors and recent ADP weekly data, the pace of job growth could fall short of market expectations. If employment comes in stronger than expected, concerns over interest rate hikes could resurface; conversely, if a slowdown is confirmed, it could provide relief from the burden of market interest rates.
Na Jeong-hwan, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, stated, “The biggest event in September is the FOMC meeting scheduled for the 15th and 16th,” adding, “Stock prices will react sensitively to the August employment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) results, which could influence the FOMC’s decision.”
Domestically, August export figures will be released on the 1st. The Bloomberg consensus forecasts a 64.4% year-over-year increase. In particular, semiconductor exports are expected to maintain a growth rate in the 100% range in the third quarter as well, which is expected to serve as an indicator reaffirming the fundamentals of the semiconductor sector, where stock price volatility has recently increased.
◇Another Attempt at the 7,000 Mark… Will the Uptrend Spread Beyond Semiconductors?
The securities industry believes that, despite interest rate volatility, the upward momentum driven by corporate earnings remains valid. NH Investment & Securities projected a trading range of 6,400 to 7,500 for the KOSPI this week.
However, analysts note that for further gains, the upward momentum—currently concentrated in the semiconductor sector—needs to spread to other sectors. Since hitting a low on the 30th of last month, the semiconductor sector has accounted for 14.5 percentage points of the increase in market capitalization by sector; however, in terms of returns, sectors related to AI data center investments—such as IT hardware, non-ferrous metals, construction, and machinery—have also shown strength.
Researcher Na stated, “Signs of this spread have appeared, but it has not yet translated into index-level gains,” adding, “While the semiconductor sector continues its gradual rise alongside upward earnings revisions, the spread to other sectors is expected to proceed slowly, driven by factors such as stable interest rates, policy momentum, and earnings turnarounds.” The advice is to maintain semiconductors as the core sector while broadening the investment scope to include secondary batteries, AI platforms, and services.