[Edaily Reporter Kim Sung-kon ] Kim Min-seok 16.0%, Han Dong-hoon 15.4%, Jang Dong-hyuk 14.2%, Oh Se-hoon 14.2%….

In terms of suitability as the next presidential candidate among both ruling and opposition parties, Kim Min-seok, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea; Han Dong-hoon, an independent lawmaker; Jang Dong-hyuk, leader of the People Power Party; and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon have formed a four-way race.

According to the regular public opinion poll for the first week of September, conducted by the polling firm Jo Won C&I on behalf of Straight News, the suitability ratings for the next presidential candidates were as follows: Kim Min-seok at 16.0%, Han Dong-hoon at 15.4%, Jang Dong-hyuk at 14.2%, and Oh Se-hoon at 14.2%. Although the numbers suggest a tie for first through third place, this is statistically insignificant given that the margin of error is within approximately 1 percentage point. In effect, the four candidates are tied.

They were followed by former Democratic Party Chairman Jeong Cheong-rae at 7.6%, Cho Kuk, Director of the Cho Kuk Innovation Policy Research Institute of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, at 6.8%, Democratic Party Representative Song Young-gil at 5.1%, former Democratic Party Daegu mayoral candidate Kim Bu-gyeom at 3.8%, and former Reform Party Chairman Lee Jun-seok at 2.2%.

The combined support for the next leader among four politicians from the broader pro-government camp—including the Democratic Party and the Jo Kuk Innovation Party—totaled 39.3%, failing to surpass the 40% threshold. In contrast, the combined support for the next leader among four politicians from the broader opposition camp—including the People Power Party, independents, and the Reform Party—totaled 46.0%. This represented a lead of more than 6 percentage points over the broader pro-government camp.

Focusing specifically on Democratic Party supporters, Chairman Kim Min-seok’s strong showing stood out. With 33.7% support, Chairman Kim left his former rival in the Democratic Party’s national convention, former Chairman Jeong Cheong-rae (13.9%), far behind. He was followed by Cho Kuk at 10.7%, Song Young-gil at 10.0%, and Kim Bu-gyeom at 6.0%.

Among People Power Party supporters, a three-way race emerged among the “Big Three”: Jang Dong-hyuk (30.1%), Oh Se-hoon (26.2%), and Han Dong-hoon (24.5%). The remaining candidates from both the ruling and opposition parties—including former party leader Lee Jun-seok and Democratic Party leader Kim Min-seok—recorded negligible figures of around 1%.

Kim Dae-jin, CEO of Jo Won C&I, assessed, “Considering the margin of error, there is no significant difference in the current support ratings for the next leader. This reflects the star power and name recognition of specific politicians, and we should view it as no candidate having yet emerged as a clear frontrunner.” He added, “Overall, the centrist voters—who hold the deciding vote—appear to be giving conservative candidates a slightly better chance.”

Meanwhile, this survey was conducted via an ARS (automated response system) poll (100% RDD method for mobile phones, with random sampling based on proportional allocation by gender, age group, and region). The margin of error is ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level, and the response rate was 3.8%. For further details, please refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.