[Edaily Marketin, Reporter Hur Jieun ] The gap in shareholdings between Hoban Group and Hanjin Logistics Corporation Chairman Walter Cho at HANJINKAL(180640) has narrowed to within 1 percentage point. Market observers speculate that Hoban may launch a tender offer after the Chuseok holiday to overturn the current ownership structure. While Hoban has been steadily increasing its stake behind the scenes through on-market purchases, analysts predict it will adopt a more aggressive strategy now that securing the position of largest shareholder is within reach.

According to the Financial Supervisory Service’s electronic disclosure system on the 26th, Hoban Group holds a 20.15% stake in HANJINKAL through its affiliates. This is the result of Hoban Industry joining Hoban Construction, Hoban, and Hoban Hotel & Resort in purchasing shares last July. The gap in shareholdings with Hanjin Logistics Corporation’s Walter Cho and his affiliates (20.57%) has narrowed to 0.42 percentage points. Nevertheless, Hoban continues to maintain a cautious stance, still characterizing the purpose of its shareholding as “pure investment.”

Opinions in the market are divided on whether Hoban will continue its cautious approach or switch to the aggressive strategy of a tender offer. The prevailing view is that securing immediate management control through a tender offer would not be easy. When Chairman Cho’s 20.57% stake is combined with friendly stakes held by Delta Air Lines (14.90%), the Korea Development Bank (10.58%), and LX Pantos (3.83%), the total reaches 29.31%; thus, even if Hoban were to hold a higher stake in terms of percentage, it would be difficult for that to translate into actual control of management.

There is also analysis suggesting that Hoban’s ability to mobilize funds for acquiring HANJINKAL shares is not what it used to be. Hoban Construction’s cash and cash equivalents on a consolidated basis as of the end of 2025 stood at 600.6 billion won, down from 971.1 billion won the previous year. With cash flow from operating activities turning negative at -472.8 billion won, its liquidity buffer appears to have shrunk. The situation is even more dire for Hoban Hotel & Resort. During the same period, its cash and cash equivalents fell from 248.6 billion won to 102.9 billion won. Some analysts suggest that Hoban Industries has room to raise funds using its stake in Taihan Cable & Solution as collateral, given that the value of that stake exceeds 5 trillion won based on recent stock prices.

However, some observers argue that the symbolic significance of the share gap narrowing to within 1 percentage point cannot be ignored. This is the backdrop for speculation that the company might first secure the position of largest shareholder and then launch a symbolic tender offer to signal a challenge for management control. In fact, a change in the largest shareholder status sends a powerful message to both the market and the board of directors.

There are also incentives to move up the timeline. Analysts note that as Chairman Cho’s camp has recently expanded its partnership with Japan Airlines (JAL) to secure allies, the situation could become increasingly unfavorable for Hoban as time passes. Additionally, the upcoming completion of the merger between KoreanAirLines and Asiana Airlines on December 16 serves as another variable. It is widely expected that the Korea Development Bank’s stake will be put up for sale following the merger. This is why some observers speculate that Hoban will make a preemptive move before KDB’s stake is sold.

Amid this situation, a new variable has emerged as police raided HANJINKAL. The police have launched an investigation on charges of breach of trust, alleging that HANJINKAL improperly used company assets worth 66.3 billion won in the process of defending its management control. The outcome of this investigation is expected to affect Chairman Cho’s justification for defending management control and his strategy for securing friendly shareholders.

An industry insider explained, “December, when the merger between KoreanAirLines and Asiana Airlines is officially finalized, will be a turning point,” adding, “There is a possibility that Hoban could change its investment objectives and proceed with a shareholder proposal or a tender offer.”