[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] Forecasts indicate that the selling price of High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) from SamsungElectronics(005930)will rise by more than 100% next year compared to this year. With the revenue share of HBM4—the sixth generation—expected to double from 40% this year to 80% next year, analysts predict that the memory shortage will persist as the expansion of HBM production encroaches on general DRAM production capacity.

Kim Dong-won, head of the Research Division at KB Securities, stated this in a report on the 1st, saying, “Given the current supply structure, it would actually be strange if a shortage of standard DRAM did not occur.”

SamsungElectronics recently projected at “Korea Premium Week 2026” that HBM’s share of total global DRAM wafer production capacity will exceed one-third by 2027. The company expects the share of standard DRAM production capacity—excluding HBM—to decline from 73% last year to 65% this year and 59% next year.

HBM consumes more than three times as many wafers as standard DRAM. Even if the HBM wafer input share of the three major DRAM manufacturers—including SamsungElectronics—reaches 30% of total DRAM by the end of next year, HBM’s supply share in terms of storage capacity is expected to account for only 13% of total DRAM. This is because the more HBM production increases, the fewer wafers are available for standard DRAM.

“SamsungElectronics’ HBM4 revenue share is projected to double from 40% in 2026 to 80% in 2027,” said Division Head Kim. “Accordingly, HBM selling prices in 2027 are estimated to rise by more than 100% year-over-year.”

Driven by improved earnings, the possibility of expanded shareholder returns has also been raised. KB Securities projected that, assuming 110 trillion won in remaining funds for shareholder returns from 2024 to 2026, the company could distribute a total of 70 trillion won in cash dividends—30 trillion won in the third quarter and 40 trillion won in the fourth quarter—along with 40 trillion won in share buybacks and cancellations.

SamsungElectronics’ average quarterly operating profit for the second half of this year is expected to exceed 100 trillion won. The annual operating profit forecast stands at 368 trillion won for this year and 555 trillion won for next year. Assuming that 50% of free cash flow (FCF) is returned to shareholders under the next three-year shareholder return policy, the total amount of shareholder returns is projected to more than quadruple, rising from 140 trillion won over the past three years to 600 trillion won over the next three years.