[Edaily Reporter KIM YOON-JEONG ] With the KOSPI having fallen to the 6,600 level, next week’s stock market is expected to face a test of whether improved semiconductor earnings can drive a rebound in the index. Analysts suggest that as the approximately 55 trillion won share buyback program undertaken by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix nears completion, the supply-and-demand factors that have been supporting the market’s bottom could weaken. Market attention is focused on whether confidence in the semiconductor sector will recover following Samsung Electronics’ third-quarter earnings announcement and whether the release of U.S. inflation data will ease interest rate pressures.

◇55 Trillion Won Treasury Stock Buyback Completed… Attention Turns to Foreign Investor Sentiment
Recently, the KOSPI retreated to the 6,600 level amid pressure from rising international oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields. Although the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) holding interest rates steady has increased due to slowing U.S. employment data, this has not led to a decline in market interest rates, thereby limiting the stock market’s rebound.
One of the key variables for the domestic stock market this week is the shift in supply and demand following the completion of share buybacks by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
According to Mirae Asset Securities, the scale of the share buybacks conducted by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix amounts to approximately 55 trillion won. Analysts attribute the fact that the KOSPI was able to maintain a certain support level—even as its upside was capped around the 7,200 mark—to the massive buying demand generated by these share buybacks.
In particular, since mid-August, other corporate investors have engaged in repeated net buying, primarily of these two stocks, while foreign investors have been net sellers. It is explained that the volume from share buybacks absorbed foreign selling, thereby helping to alleviate downward pressure on the index.
The issue lies in the period following the conclusion of the share buybacks. Once the buyers who have been absorbing market sell-off pressure disappear, selling pressure from foreign investors or institutions is likely to have a more direct impact on stock prices than before.
Kim Seok-hwan, an analyst at Mirae Asset Securities, noted that the end of the share buyback program itself should not necessarily be interpreted as a signal of a stock price decline. He explained that while the buyback program supported the index’s bottom by absorbing selling pressure during the program period, changes in supply and demand from foreign investors and institutions may be reflected more directly in stock prices after the program ends.
Consequently, market attention is expected to shift to the extent to which improved corporate earnings and buying pressure from foreign investors can fill the void left by the end of the share buyback program.
◇Samsung Electronics Reports 107 Trillion Won in Operating Profit… Will Semiconductor Earnings Drive a Rebound?
Improved earnings in the semiconductor sector are cited as a key factor that could offset supply-demand pressures.
In its preliminary third-quarter earnings announced on the 8th, Samsung Electronics reported revenue of 195 trillion won and operating profit of 107.4 trillion won. Samsung Securities assessed these results as exceeding market expectations, which had been lowered due to exchange rate effects.
In particular, the firm highlighted the possibility that the cycle of rising memory chip prices will continue into next year. Samsung Securities projected that the average selling price (ASP) of DRAM in 2027 will rise by 40% compared to this year, and that quarterly price increases will continue. Reflecting this, the firm raised its 2027 operating profit forecast for Samsung Electronics by 4% from its previous estimate to 532 trillion won.
Lee Jong-wook, an analyst at Samsung Securities, expected that as the outlook for memory prices and demand becomes clearer, investors’ confidence in the sustainability of the memory market will grow. In particular, he analyzed that future memory price increases and improved competitiveness in High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) will be key drivers of stock price growth.
Daishin Securities also assessed that, given the downward revision in earnings forecasts for the semiconductor sector, there is significant potential for stock prices to react positively if actual earnings exceed expectations.
Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, stated, “Strong Korean semiconductor exports and Micron’s earnings have reaffirmed robust semiconductor demand and medium- to long-term growth potential,” adding, “If rising memory prices and the ramp-up of HBM4 are confirmed, this will drive the recovery of the semiconductor sector’s leadership and fuel further gains in the KOSPI.”
Whether the improvement in semiconductor earnings will spread to other sectors is also a key issue. Mirae Asset Securities analyzed that if the trend of upward earnings revisions—currently concentrated on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix—extends to equipment, materials, and component manufacturers, the scope of the semiconductor rally could broaden. Conversely, if earnings improvements remain concentrated solely on large-cap semiconductor stocks, the index’s rise may also depend on just a few specific stocks.
◇ U.S. CPI and PPI to Be Released Successively… Will Pressure from Interest Rates and Oil Prices Ease?
This week, U.S. inflation indicators are also seen as key variables that will determine the direction of the stock market.
The U.S. is scheduled to release the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the 14th and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on the 15th. As recent rises in international oil prices and government bond yields in major countries have weighed on the stock market, market attention is expected to focus on whether inflation is slowing.
According to Daishin Securities, based on the Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank’s inflation forecast, the U.S. core CPI for September is expected to rise 2.39% year-over-year. The month-over-month increase is projected to be 0.2%, down from 0.3% in August.
Analyst Lee Kyung-min noted that if the September U.S. CPI confirms a slowdown in inflation, concerns about inflation could ease and Treasury yields could stabilize at lower levels.
International oil prices are also a key variable. While concerns over supply disruptions have eased somewhat due to the recovery in Middle Eastern crude oil exports and the Group of Seven’s (G7) agreement to release strategic oil reserves, geopolitical tensions persist due to attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabian airports and refineries. There remains a possibility that oil prices and market interest rates could fluctuate again depending on future developments in the Middle East.
Third-quarter earnings reports from U.S. companies are also set to begin in earnest. Mirae Asset Securities noted that earnings forecasts for S&P 500 companies are actually being revised upward ahead of the earnings announcements. The firm analyzed that if the trend of improving earnings spreads beyond artificial intelligence (AI)-related companies to sectors such as energy and materials, stock prices could be revalued based on earnings performance even amid the burden of high interest rates.
The securities industry is also noting that the domestic stock market’s valuation is in a historically undervalued range. According to Daishin Securities, the KOSPI’s 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) stands at 5.26x, remaining near historic lows. The firm explains that as earnings forecasts rise while stock prices undergo a correction, valuation pressures have actually eased.
Research analyst Lee Kyung-min proposed a strategy of “increasing or maintaining exposure to leading stocks in the semiconductor and AI value chains,” while advising that investors should also pay attention to “sectors such as shipbuilding, retail (distribution), insurance, automotive, software, non-ferrous metals, and timber—which are undervalued relative to their earnings—as well as growth stocks in the internet sector.”
Ultimately, the key variable for the KOSPI this week will be the extent to which improving semiconductor earnings and a recovery in foreign buying can offset the weakening support from share buybacks. If a slowdown in U.S. inflation and stability in international oil prices are confirmed, this is expected to provide further momentum for a stock market rebound driven by improved earnings.