Exchange Rate Hits Two-Year Low, Then Jumps 10 Won… Driven by Middle East Tensions and Concerns Over AI Market Peaking
Won-Dollar Exchange Rate Closes at 1,345.1 Won for the Week
Oil Prices Soar and the Dollar Strengthens Amid Middle East Tensions
KOSPI Plummets Over 5%… IMF Also Warns of AI Stock Correction
[Edaily Reporter Lee Jeong-yoon ] The won-dollar exchange rate rebounded by more than 10 won just one day after falling to its lowest level in two years. This was driven by spreading risk-aversion sentiment amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and growing concerns over the artificial intelligence (AI) sector having peaked.
[Edaily Reporter Lee Young-hoon] On the 13th, the closing market conditions were displayed on an electronic board in the Hana Bank dealing room in Jung-gu, Seoul, as the KOSPI closed at 6,035.35, down 348.89 points (5.46%). The KOSDAQ closed at 837.03, down 12.16 points (1.43%) from the previous day.
According to the Seoul foreign exchange market on the 13th, the exchange rate during intraday trading (as of 3:30 p.m.) surged 10.0 won from the previous trading day to 1,345.1 won. The exchange rate had fallen to 1,331.2 won the previous day—marking its lowest level in about two years—but rebounded within a single day.
The exchange rate showed an upward trend throughout the day. It soared from 1,334.0 won around 8:00 a.m. to 1,345.8 won around noon.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising international oil prices are cited as the main factors behind the exchange rate’s rise. Concerns over disruptions to crude oil supplies and inflation have grown as Yemen’s pro-Iranian Houthi rebels continue their attacks on Saudi Arabia.
Overnight, December-delivery Brent crude closed at $106.65 per barrel, up 1.84% from the previous session. The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar’s value against a basket of six major currencies, also broke through the 102.6 mark during the session, hitting its highest level since April of last year.
Doubts surrounding the growth potential and investment profitability of the global AI industry also fueled the won’s weakness. U.S. semiconductor stocks plummeted on news that the technological competitiveness of Chinese memory semiconductor maker Changxin Memory Technology (CXMT) is rapidly improving.
On that day, the KOSPI plunged more than 5%, falling below the 6,000 mark. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix also saw sharp declines. As investor sentiment toward AI-related technology stocks deteriorated, foreign investors’ selling of domestic stocks and the resulting demand for dollars are believed to have exerted upward pressure on the exchange rate.
In its Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) released today, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also identified a correction in AI-related stock prices as a major risk factor for global financial markets. The IMF warned that, given the increased reliance on debt financing during the expansion of AI investments, a stock price correction could spread across the broader financial market if profitability falls short of expectations.
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