[Edaily Reporter SOYEON KIM ] SamsungElectronics will announce its final third-quarter earnings today (the 29th). With the semiconductor supercycle continuing amid expanded investment in artificial intelligence (AI), forecasts suggest the company likely generated operating profit of 110 trillion won from its semiconductor (DS) division alone. As the memory supply shortage is expected to persist, attention is also focused on future earnings outlook driven by the expansion of next-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply, as well as additional shareholder return policies.

SamsungElectronics will disclose its final third-quarter consolidated financial results and detailed performance by business division this morning. According to the preliminary results announced on the 8th, third-quarter operating profit reached 107.4 trillion won, a 782.50% surge compared to the same period last year. Quarterly operating profit surpassed 100 trillion won for the first time ever, setting a new all-time record. Revenue also rose 126.59% year-over-year to 195 trillion won.

Analysts attribute these strong results to the memory semiconductor business. Amid continued price increases for DRAM and NAND flash driven by expanding global investment in AI infrastructure, the DS division’s operating profit is estimated to have approached 110 trillion won. However, non-memory business units, such as foundry and System LSI, are estimated to have posted operating losses in the 1 trillion won range again in the third quarter.

The market expects SamsungElectronics’ earnings growth to continue into next year as the memory supply shortage persists. In particular, the expansion of HBM4—the sixth-generation HBM—is expected to drive improved profitability.

As global Big Tech companies compete to secure memory for building AI data centers, long-term supply agreements (LTAs) are also on the rise. The securities industry estimates that SamsungElectronics has already allocated approximately 70–80% of its planned memory production volume for next year through LTAs. Analysts note that competition among major U.S. hyperscalers (large-scale data center operators) continues for the remaining 20–30% of the volume.

SK hynix, which announced its earnings the previous day, also projected that the memory supply shortage will persist through 2030. Park Jun-young, an analyst at HANWHA INVESTMENT & SECURITIES, said, “We expect demand for HBM4 to expand with the full-scale shipment of NVIDIA’s Rubin platform,” adding, “Following early mass production this year, we anticipate that shipment volumes will increase and the contribution to annual earnings will gain momentum next year.”

Buoyed by the memory boom, expectations for SamsungElectronics’ earnings are also rising. The consensus forecast (average of securities firms’ projections) for SamsungElectronics’ fourth-quarter earnings is 206.5424 trillion won in revenue and 116.7887 trillion won in operating profit. Annual operating profit is expected to reach 371.5632 trillion won.

On the other hand, there are concerns that the Device eXperience (DX) division may post a loss for two consecutive quarters. This is because rising costs of key components, such as semiconductors, are putting pressure on profitability. Following an operating loss of 800 billion won in the second quarter, the DX division is estimated to have posted a loss in the 1 trillion won range in the third quarter as well.

Additional shareholder return policies are also a major focus of this earnings announcement. Following SK hynix’s announcement the previous day of a 100 trillion won shareholder return plan, SamsungElectronics also plans to implement a large-scale shareholder return program.

SamsungElectronics announced in August its plan to implement shareholder returns totaling 90 trillion to 110 trillion won this year. Accordingly, the company plans to distribute approximately 30 trillion won in cash dividends, including the regular quarterly dividend for the third quarter. The specific dividend amount and payment schedule are expected to be finalized during this earnings announcement.

The scale and method of the remaining shareholder returns are expected to be determined in January of next year, once the company’s full-year financial results for this year are finalized. With additional cash dividends and share buybacks and cancellations under consideration, all eyes are on what level of shareholder return measures SamsungElectronics will announce based on its record-breaking earnings.