◇Non-IT Export Value Up 13.3%, but Volume Rises Only 0.5%
According to an analysis by Edaily on the 3rd, which used the Bank of Korea’s trade index to break down third-quarter exports into IT and non-IT categories and analyze volume and price factors, non-IT export value rose by 13.3%, but volume increased by only 0.5%. This stands in contrast to the total export value based on customs clearance, which reached $318.4 billion during the same period—a 72.2% increase from a year earlier.
While the Bank of Korea publishes export volume indices by product category, it does not separately compile volume data for non-IT exports. In this analysis, the total export value index was used to reverse-calculate the share (weight) of export value by product category, and the indices for each category were then converted to value terms.
Of the 19 product categories, four—semiconductors, electronic display devices, computers and peripherals, and telecommunications, broadcasting, and video/audio equipment—were classified as IT, while the remaining 15 were classified as non-IT. This scope aligns with the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy’s “Four Major IT Categories.”
IT exports saw growth in both price and volume. Export value increased by 201% year-over-year, tripling in size. Due to the sharp rise in memory prices, the average export unit price rose approximately 2.5-fold, and volume also increased by more than 20%.
The export volume index for “computers, electronic, and optical equipment”—officially compiled by the Bank of Korea—rose 34.7% in the third quarter. The growth rate of the overall export volume index in September also reached 32.1%, the highest level in 16 years and 8 months.
In contrast, non-IT exports relied heavily on price increases. Of the 13.3% growth in export value, 12.6 percentage points were attributable to price effects. Volume growth contributed only 0.7 percentage points. The non-IT categories that saw a noticeable increase in volume were machinery and equipment (11.4%), precision instruments (11.9%), and electrical equipment (6.2%).
Among these, machinery and equipment benefited from strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, while electrical equipment benefited from increased demand for data center-related batteries; although these are non-IT items, they benefited from expanded AI investment.
The price increase in non-IT exports stemmed primarily from items linked to oil prices. While the unit price of petroleum products jumped 64%, export volume fell by 4.2%. This was due to rising international oil prices caused by reduced shipping traffic resulting from the Middle East crisis. The price of Dubai crude, which South Korea imports in large quantities, stood at $113.7 per barrel as of last September, a 62% increase from a year earlier. Chemical product unit prices also rose by 13%, but volume increased by only 1.3%. The price effect from these two categories alone accounted for 10.1 percentage points. Primary metal products, such as steel and non-ferrous metals, saw unit prices rise by 18%, contributing 2.1 percentage points.
Cho Young-moo, director of the NH Financial Research Institute, pointed out, “Although exports of petroleum and chemical products—which had been struggling—are said to be improving, a different picture emerges when we factor out the price increase effect caused by the surge in international oil prices.” He added, “As dependence on the highly volatile semiconductor industry has grown, the volatility of the overall economy has structurally increased.”
◇ IT Dominance Persists Even When Accounting for Operating Days… Similar Trend Expected in October
Temporary factors also contributed to the stagnation in non-IT export volumes during the third quarter. This included a 7.3% decline in transportation equipment (automobiles, auto parts, etc.) due to strikes at some automakers in August and a sharp drop in used car exports in September, as well as a reduction in working days caused by the Chuseok holiday.
However, even when accounting for the number of working days, the gap between IT and non-IT exports remained significant. While non-IT export volume increased by only 6.5%, the growth rate for IT exports reached 27.9%.
Of course, revenue generated by price effects is real income, but for items sensitive to crude oil prices—such as petroleum and chemical products—rising export unit prices can simultaneously increase the burden of raw material costs. This is why some point out that record-high exports do not necessarily signify a boom across the entire manufacturing sector.
It is highly likely that a similar trend continued in October. According to figures released by the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy on the 1st, October exports totaled $115.3 billion, a 93.7% increase from a year ago. Export value for petroleum products rose by 80%, while that for petrochemicals increased by 27.5%.
Assuming that the unit export prices by product category in September held steady in October, the volume of non-IT exports is estimated to have increased by 4–10% compared to last year. However, considering that October had 22 working days—two more than last year—the average daily export volume is estimated to be similar to or slightly lower than last year’s level.
