[New York = E-Daily Seong Joowon Correspondent] The U.S. Democratic Party’s landslide victory in the midterm elections signals potential changes in international issues such as the war with Iran, aid to Ukraine, and trade negotiations. Observers suggest that pressure is mounting on President Donald Trump—who lost control of Congress—to end the war, and that trading partners may gain more room for negotiation. However, given that the president’s authority over foreign policy and trade remains strong, it is uncertain whether the election results will immediately lead to a policy shift.

Hopes for an End to the Iran Conflict… Stricter Vetting for Aid to Israel

On the 4th (local time), Reuters reported, citing two sources familiar with the assessments of Gulf governments, that some governments believe the need for a peace agreement with Trump is greater than ever. These governments also assessed that the likelihood of another full-scale attack on Iran has decreased following the election. The argument is that, as voters expressed dissatisfaction with fuel prices driven up by the war, the motivation for negotiations has strengthened.
There are also risks of opposition. This is because Iran might interpret the election results as a sign of Trump’s weakened position and adopt a more hardline stance. Ebtisam Al-Ketbi of the Emirates Policy Center warned that while an opportunity for a ceasefire could open up if Iran understands Trump’s need for an agreement, if it perceives this as a weakness, it could lead to a new military escalation.
Israel is expected to face heightened scrutiny from a Democratic-controlled Congress. Not only military operations in Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon but also U.S. military aid and arms sales could become points of contention.
The crude oil market reacted first to expectations of an end to the conflict. Reuters reported that oil prices fell for the third consecutive day, reflecting expectations for U.S.-Iran peace talks. However, the report also cited analysis suggesting that tight inventories limited further declines.

Even with Increased Aid to Ukraine, Immediate Reinforcement of Air Defense Systems Is Limited

Ukraine now has an opportunity to revive U.S. aid. Despite broad bipartisan support, Trump has largely halted direct financial and military assistance.
With control of both chambers of Congress, Democrats can push for a new aid package. If they secure Republican cooperation and obtain a two-thirds majority in each chamber, they can override a presidential veto.
However, Reuters noted that it is unlikely that aid expansion will happen quickly. In particular, the shortage of U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles—needed to protect energy facilities and cities this winter—cannot be immediately resolved simply by increasing the budget. This means that Congress’s willingness to provide support and its actual capacity to supply weapons are two separate matters.

Even if Room for Tariff Negotiations Widens, Full Withdrawal Remains Uncertain

In trade negotiations, the pace of a counterpart’s response may vary. Reuters reported an analysis suggesting that some Asian countries, which had made investment commitments to avoid tariffs, now have a greater incentive to delay fulfillment, and that China may judge the situation to be favorable to its position in trade negotiations.
However, it is too early to expect a complete withdrawal of existing tariffs. Even though Congress holds authority over trade and tariffs, Trump has utilized laws that allow him to impose tariffs on grounds of national security or unfair trade. Even if the Democrats attempt to limit this authority, they are likely to face a presidential veto.
Chim Lee, an industrial policy analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), also predicted that U.S.-China economic relations would generally maintain a state of “fragile stability.”
Regulatory burdens are a key variable for the AI industry. Reuters reported that Asian semiconductor stocks—including TSMC,SamsungElectronics(005930),SK hynix(000660), and Kioxia—fell that day as voter concerns over the rapid expansion of data centers came to the fore. There are concerns that the Democrats’ push for stronger regulation and oversight could slow the pace of AI infrastructure expansion. For South Korean companies, the extent to which U.S. policy changes will affect actual investment and order schedules has emerged as a key challenge.