[Edaily Reporter Kim Tae-seop ] Analysts have concluded that the El Niño phenomenon, which began last May, is on track to become the strongest on record since 1950.

The Korea Meteorological Administration announced on the 6th that El Niño conditions—characterized by sea surface temperatures higher than normal—have persisted since last May. The agency forecasts that this El Niño will be the strongest on record and is expected to reach its peak in December.

El Niño is a phenomenon in which sea surface temperatures in the waters near Central and South America in the Pacific Ocean rise above average. If a strong El Niño persists, changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation can lead to abrupt climate changes, such as torrential rains in regions that typically receive little precipitation or droughts in regions that usually experience heavy rainfall.

Last month, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the El Niño monitoring region was 2.6 degrees, and the three-month moving average anomaly was 2.4 degrees—both of which set all-time records for the same period since 1950. Generally, an El Niño event is considered to have begun when the three-month moving average sea surface temperature in the El Niño monitoring area remains 0.5 degrees higher than normal for five months or more; a difference of 1.5 degrees or more is classified as a strong El Niño.

The Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts that this El Niño will develop into the strongest on record. El Niño typically peaks during the winter; since the sea surface temperature deviation already reached a record high for this time of year last October, it is expected to reach its peak this coming December.

A strong El Niño can lead to a relatively warm and rainy winter. Generally, during winters when El Niño develops, convective activity in the tropical western Pacific decreases, while a high-pressure circulation strengthens to the east of the Korean Peninsula, causing large amounts of warm, moist air to flow into the peninsula.

However, the Korea Meteorological Administration explained that domestic winter weather cannot be forecast based on El Niño alone. This means that domestic winter weather is influenced by various climatic factors, including not only El Niño but also sea surface temperatures in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans, Arctic sea ice, and snow cover in the Eurasian region.

For example, when the KMA released its three-month forecast on the 23rd of last month, it predicted that November and December would be somewhat warmer than usual with heavy rainfall, but forecast that while temperatures in January of next year would be higher than average, precipitation would be similar to normal. The agency explained that even in January of next year, temporary inflows of cold air will cause significant temperature fluctuations, making it difficult to define the weather in general terms.

Lee Mi-sun, Administrator of the Korea Meteorological Administration, explained, “Due to the influence of a strong El Niño this winter, temperatures are expected to be higher than average and precipitation is expected to be generally higher than average,” but added, “Since various climate factors are at play, it is necessary to prepare for sudden weather changes, such as cold snaps.”

She continued, “The Korea Meteorological Administration will closely monitor and analyze the development of El Niño and the climate factors affecting Korea to provide climate forecast information that will assist the public and relevant agencies in taking proactive measures.”