[Edaily Reporter Kim Kyung-eun ] Forecasts suggest the KOSPI could fall as low as the 4,500 level in a worst-case scenario. Analysts note that, considering past instances—such as the dot-com bubble burst and the global financial crisis—when the KOSPI fell by more than 50% from its peak, the possibility of further declines remains. However, given that the KOSPI has already plummeted by more than 40% from its peak last June, experts estimate that any further decline from current levels may be limited to around 10–15%.

Heo Jae-hwan, an analyst at Eugene Investment & Securities, stated in a report on the 6th, “Given that domestic semiconductor companies were the biggest beneficiaries of AI capital expenditures, they cannot be entirely free from related concerns.”

The KOSPI fell 46.1% from its June high of 9,114.55 to 4,911.28 during intraday trading on that day. During the dot-com bubble burst, it plummeted 52% from its peak, and during the 2007–2008 global financial crisis, it fell 54%. Excluding the case of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) foreign exchange crisis, when the index fell by 60–70%, the KOSPI’s maximum decline at the end of major boom periods has generally been around 50%. Applying this to the current stock market, the KOSPI’s bottom is estimated to be in the 4,500–4,600 range, according to the explanation.

Researcher Heo analyzed, “The maximum decline conceivable in the domestic stock market at this point is around 10–15%.” He continued, “Given that even the U.S. stock market is showing signs of instability, we must maintain a conservative stance,” adding, “Since the semiconductor sector still accounts for a significant portion of the domestic market, we need to reduce our reliance on it.” However, he drew a line, stating, “As the domestic stock market has already fallen sharply, investors should refrain from joining the panic selling at this point.”

Concerns over a slowdown in AI data center investments—which surfaced following the U.S. midterm elections—were cited as the reason behind the recent stock market plunge. In the five states—Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, and Iowa—where the Democratic Party reclaimed the governorship from the Republicans, there are currently 505 data centers either under construction or in the planning stages. The total power capacity of these data centers is 142.5 gigawatts (GW), accounting for 41.2% of the U.S. total.

In particular, the Democratic governors-elect in three states—Texas, Georgia, and Ohio—have pledged to halt data center construction or tighten regulations. The power capacity of data centers concentrated in these three states alone accounts for 37.7% of the U.S. total.

Researcher Heo explained, “It is highly likely that the Democratic Party will make the data center issue a political flashpoint leading up to the 2028 presidential election,” adding, “Even if investment does not decline immediately, this could lead to a situation where Big Tech companies will have to revise their capital expenditure plans within the next two to three years.”

However, he assessed that concerns about a sharp decline in AI investment or a severe slowdown in the U.S. economy are exaggerated. In fact, while CoreWeave’s credit default swap (CDS) premium—which reflects its high dependence on AI infrastructure investment—has surged, credit risk indicators for major Big Tech companies, including Oracle, have remained relatively stable.

Historical data also suggests that stock markets have often rebounded following periods of extreme fear. An analysis by Eugene Investment & Securities of instances where the Volatility Index (VIX) surged by more than 30% in a single day revealed that, following the global financial crisis, the S&P 500 index rose three months later in 81% of cases, and six months and one year later in 92% and 94% of cases, respectively.

Stabilization in international oil prices and interest rates was cited as the catalyst for the rebound. Analyst Heo predicted, “November and December are likely to mark the final stages of interest rate hikes in major economies such as the U.S. and South Korea,” adding, “Given that U.S. consumption has been quite dependent on rising stock prices, if a slowdown in fourth-quarter growth is confirmed, expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes could be significantly dampened.” He further predicted, “This could serve as a catalyst for a stock market rebound in the first half of next year.”