[Edaily Reporter kyoungeun kim ] According to an analysis, following the U.S. midterm elections, the market’s focus regarding AI investments has shifted from “Can we earn as much as we invest?” to “Can we actually execute our planned investments?” However, since the domestic stock market is already showing signs of having bottomed out, analysts believe even a slight easing of concerns could trigger a significant rebound.

Cho Jun-ki, an analyst at SKSecurities, stated in a report on the 9th, “Last week, global stock markets saw increased volatility as investors reassessed AI investments following the Democrats’ simultaneous recapture of both the House and Senate in the U.S. midterm elections, as well as their victories in key gubernatorial races.” However, on the 6th (local time), the Nasdaq Composite Index rebounded by 1.09%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 4.21%. After the domestic market closed, KOSPI 200 night futures rose 1.6%, and the SamsungElectronics(005930)and SK hynix(000660) perpetual futures also rose by around 3%.

Researcher Cho stated, “It is too early to interpret Friday’s rebound as a sign that policy uncertainty has been resolved or that a trend reversal has been confirmed,” but added, “Given the pace and concentration of the recent decline, this is an environment where even a slight easing of concerns could trigger a significant rebound.”

He pointed out that the nature of concerns regarding AI investments has changed. He analyzed, “While the key concern previously was that Big Tech’s excessive capital expenditures were putting pressure on free cash flow (FCF) and extending the payback period, concerns have now expanded to include the possibility that securing power, grid connections, local community opposition, and regulatory approvals could constrain the pace of data center expansion itself,” adding, “The market is reevaluating the feasibility and timeline of future expansion plans rather than focusing solely on previously announced investment amounts.” However, he advised, “It is important to distinguish between construction delays and a decline in end-user demand,” adding, “When reviewing market communications from relevant companies, investors should focus on delivery schedules, power connections, customer onboarding timelines, and the actual pace of revenue conversion rather than simply looking for statements that ‘investment plans remain unchanged.’”

Macroeconomic and credit indicators were assessed as still favorable. Analyst Cho explained, “There is still limited evidence to link the stock market plunge to a broad economic or credit contraction,” adding, “The focus is shifting toward reassessing the pace of the AI investment cycle’s expansion and equity risk premiums, rather than widespread credit pressures.”

This week, U.S. inflation data and earnings reports from AI infrastructure companies are expected to be key variables. Scheduled releases include the U.S. October Consumer Price Index (CPI) on the night of the 10th (KST), CoreWeave’s earnings in the early hours of the 11th, Navius’s earnings on the night of the 12th, and the U.S. October Producer Price Index (PPI) on the night of the 13th.

Researcher Cho noted, “In NeoCloud’s earnings announcement, the company’s response and plans regarding the midterm election results—which were a major topic of discussion last week—may be more important than its actual earnings,” adding, “Over the weekend, CoreWeave sent a letter to Gina Hinojosa, the Democratic governor-elect of Texas, asking her to accept stricter regulations on new data centers while ensuring that projects already approved can be completed as scheduled.” He also highlighted TSMC’s October revenue report on the 10th and the earnings reports from Cisco and Applied Materials on the 13th as key points for cross-checking demand in the semiconductor, networking, and equipment sectors.

Analyst Cho predicted, “The domestic stock market is already in an extremely dire situation across all indicators—including the magnitude of price declines, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, valuations, and foreign investor sentiment,” adding, “If even a small trigger emerges, a Chonbang price recovery is expected.”