[Edaily Reporter Kwon Oh Seok ] IBK Investment & Securities released a report on the 13th analyzing the future stock market outlook, stating, “Signs of easing market risks are becoming more widespread.”

Byeon Jun-ho, an analyst at IBK Investment & Securities, explained, “As the third-quarter earnings season—which had been a source of concern—enters its latter half, it appears that risks have been largely priced in. Although concerns arose regarding the earnings of export-oriented stocks due to the sharp drop in the exchange rate, major companies such as SamsungElectronics(005930),SK hynix(000660), andHyundaiMotor(005380) reported better-than-expected results, so the market impact from the earnings announcements is estimated to have been less severe than feared.”
An analysis of 226 companies for which operating profit consensus estimates exist showed that third-quarter operating profit exceeded market expectations by approximately 3.9 percent; however, excluding the four large-cap stocks—SamsungElectronics, SK hynix, HyundaiMotor, and SK Innovation—the results fell short of market expectations by about 3.2 percent.
He continued, “CoreWeave’s earnings, which had been a source of concern, turned out to be better than feared, and concerns regarding artificial intelligence (AI) appear to be easing. “While there were significant concerns about CoreWeave’s earnings as its corporate bond yields surged and its stock price plummeted, both the actual figures and guidance appear to be better than market expectations,” he said. “Of course, concerns about a resurgence in market interest rates and issues regarding its collaboration with NVIDIA will continue to arise; however, considering that earnings stability has been confirmed in the short term and guidance has been raised, the phase of escalating short-term risks is expected to ease.”
He also confirmed that the strong export trend is continuing, with exports surging 112% year-over-year in early November. Analyst Byun analyzed, “Although we had expected the export growth rate to slow down due to a weakening base effect after the fall, the export growth rate continues to rise, driven by a robust boom in semiconductor exports.”
He emphasized, “Although the export value in October decreased slightly compared to September, we judge that the robust export environment is continuing. By region, we estimate that performance is favorable in almost all regions except Europe. This is expected to alleviate concerns regarding the fourth-quarter economy and corporate earnings.”
A cause for caution is the expectation that major economies—including the U.S., Europe, and Japan—will raise their benchmark interest rates simultaneously in December. In the U.S., for two consecutive months in September and October
, with inflation exceeding market expectations, making a rate hike a foregone conclusion, as the market has already fully priced it in. In Europe and Japan as well,
are also expected to raise rates, given similar inflationary pressures and the central banks’ hawkish stances.
Researcher Byun added, “Since the market has already priced in a more than 70% probability of rate hikes in these three regions—and given that this is being prominently forecasted in the media—the market is likely already preemptively factoring in a significant portion of these concerns.” He continued, “Rather than being a new negative factor, the December rate hikes by major economies are more likely to act as a factor limiting upward momentum; therefore, the risk of a stock market decline due to tightening risks is not significant.”