[Edaily Reporter Park Soon-yeop] Global maritime shipping risks are rising again following the Houthi rebels’ announcement that they will resume attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea. However, analysts in the securities industry suggest that this issue is more likely to have a direct impact on tanker freight rates—such as those for oil tankers—rather than the container ship market. Major container shipping companies are already continuing to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Red Sea route, so the additional impact is expected to be limited. In contrast, for crude oil transportation, the increased shipping distance resulting from choosing a detour route could lead to higher freight rates.
Jeong Yeon-seung, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities, stated in a report published on the 9th, “While the resumption of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on ships transiting the Red Sea is expected to have a limited impact on the container market, tanker freight rates may rise due to the increased transport distance.” Analyst Jeong identified the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal–Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and the Panama Canal as key areas to monitor.

The Strait of Hormuz is the area with the highest level of uncertainty. Although ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are underway, the situation remains challenging for the resumption of normal shipping traffic due to ongoing missile attacks in the Middle East. According to Clarksons statistics, the current daily average number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz is less than 10, down to less than 10% of the average of 122 vessels recorded last February. Researcher Jeong believes that normalizing shipping traffic will be difficult until a ceasefire agreement is reached.
The Red Sea route is also a variable. Since the Houthi rebels’ attack on a container ship in November 2023, major global container shipping companies have already been rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope to avoid the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Consequently, the additional impact of renewed attacks on the container market may be limited. However, the tanker market is different. While crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu Port are continuing, shipments bound for Asia may need to take detours instead of using the existing routes. Experts explain that if the targets of attacks expand beyond vessels linked to Israel, pressure for higher tanker freight rates could increase.
The Panama Canal is also cited as a factor contributing to logistics costs. Since the war began, demand for transit through the Panama Canal has increased as exports of U.S. crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have risen. While water levels are currently above average and there are no transit restrictions, canal tolls continue to rise due to increased demand. Consequently, it is projected that more ships may opt to sail around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Panama Canal.
Container freight rates appear to be driven more by rising demand than by geopolitical risks. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) stood at 2,727 points, an 84% increase from the previous year. The upward trend has accelerated significantly since May. Researcher Jeong explained, “This freight rate hike should be viewed primarily as a result of increased demand rather than operational disruptions,” adding, “Shippers have been shipping peak-season cargo early to prepare for longer transit times, resulting in stronger-than-expected demand.”
The rise in freight rates was also attributed to a combination of factors, including changes in U.S. tariff policies, the World Cup effect, and adjustments to Amazon Prime Day schedules, which collectively triggered advance demand. In the short term, the market has entered a phase where demand exceeds supply, and the balance of power in freight rate negotiations has shifted toward shipping lines. While concerns remain about increased supply due to the delivery of a large number of newly built container ships in the medium to long term, the assessment is that the strong freight rate trend is likely to continue in the short term, supported by the peak season effect and robust demand.
Accordingly, earnings improvements for major container shipping companies, including #HMM, are expected to materialize over the second and third quarters. Rising ocean freight rates and concerns over logistics disruptions could also have a positive impact on air cargo demand. This is because the longer ocean shipping delays persist, the greater the likelihood that high-value and urgent cargo will shift to air transport. Analyst Jung predicted that #KoreanAir, which possesses a long-haul cargo network and cargo transport capabilities among domestic airlines, will benefit most directly.