[Edaily Reporter Park Soon-yeop] While shipbuilding stock prices have fluctuated in response to thematic events such as data centers and nuclear submarines, analysts predict that the focus will shift back to the recovery of ship orders, rising ship prices, and earnings improvements driven by order backlogs in the second half of the year. With the recovery of global trade coinciding with an increase in orders for tankers and LNG carriers, the likelihood that domestic shipbuilders will exceed their order targets is also growing.
In a report released on the 11th, Byun Yong-jin, an analyst at iM Securities, stated, “The core business is improving thanks to a resurgence in ship orders,” and maintained an “Overweight” investment rating for the shipbuilding sector. He identified #HD Hyundai Heavy Industries as his top pick.

According to the report, global ship orders totaled 33.56 million CGT as of May this year, a 62.4% increase compared to the same period last year. This marks the strongest order momentum in the past five years since 2022. The report explains that while the order market in 2025 experienced a correction due to the base effect from last year’s massive orders and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, signs of recovery emerged at the end of last year, and the upward trend in order volume has become pronounced this year.
Ship prices are also rebounding. Researcher Byun noted, “Although ship prices turned downward after reaching a record high in September of last year, they have been rising for over two months due to an increase in shipbuilders’ order backlogs driven by the recent strong order trend,” suggesting the possibility of further increases. Compared to recent lows, prices for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have risen by 4.4%, LNG carriers by 1.4%, 15,000 TEU-class container ships by 1.8%, and LPG carriers by 1.4% over the past two months.
By vessel type, tankers and LNG carriers are leading the recovery in orders. Tankers accounted for 30% of total ship orders this year, while LNG carriers accounted for 13%. The combined share of these two vessel types expanded by 21 percentage points compared to last year. Analysts attribute this strengthened order momentum to the sharp rise in LNG and tanker freight rates following geopolitical risks stemming from Iran.
The order fulfillment rates of domestic shipbuilders are also rising rapidly. HD Hyundai Heavy Industries has secured $12.76 billion in orders out of its $20.42 billion target for this year, achieving 62.5% of its total goal. In particular, the merchant ship division secured $10.84 billion, reaching a 94.5% fulfillment rate. #Samsung Heavy Industries has also secured $9.6 billion out of its $13.9 billion order target for this year, achieving 69.1% of its goal. Looking solely at the merchant ship sector, the achievement rate stands at 91.2%.
Consequently, analysts predict that the merchant ship division is virtually certain to exceed its annual order target. Samsung Heavy Industries also secured $4.4 billion in orders in the offshore division, meeting 53.7% of its target, and with a high likelihood of securing two additional FLNG units, it is expected to comfortably meet its overall target.
However, some analysts pointed out that investors should not become overly fixated on thematic events when it comes to stock prices. The main factors driving shipbuilding stock prices in the first half of this year were HD Hyundai Heavy Industries’ order for engines for U.S. data centers and the Ministry of National Defense’s announcement of a basic plan for the development of nuclear-powered submarines. However, while both events led to short-term stock price increases, the upward momentum did not last long, as it takes time for actual orders and earnings to materialize.
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries’ stock price rose to 733,000 won following the announcement of a contract to supply power generation equipment for data centers last April, but subsequently experienced a pullback. #Hanwha Engine’s stock price also rose to 89,500 won on expectations of securing an engine order for data centers, but momentum subsequently weakened, causing the price to fall below pre-announcement levels. Even when the basic plan for nuclear-powered submarines was announced, the stock prices of HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean surged by 9.6% and 10.2%, respectively, but they gave up a significant portion of those gains within a week.
Analyst Byun stated, “While we cannot overlook positive events such as data centers and nuclear submarines, we should avoid becoming overly fixated on them,” adding, “We need to focus more on the shipbuilding industry’s market conditions, order intake, and the earnings based on those factors.”
The earnings outlook was also assessed positively. Based solely on the order backlog as of the end of May, earnings are likely to peak in 2028; however, considering the recent upward trend in ship prices, analysts suggest that the earnings peak could be extended to 2029 through orders secured in the second half of the year for slots in 2029. However, factors such as rising domestic plate steel prices, demands for performance-based bonuses from operating profits, and a reduction in operating days due to summer vacations were cited as variables that could place some pressure on third-quarter and second-half earnings.
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries was identified as the top pick. iM Securities assessed that HD Hyundai Heavy Industries holds the most robust order backlog in its core business and demonstrates excellent earnings performance. Furthermore, the firm is sufficiently exposed to event-driven momentum from data centers and special-purpose vessels, leading to the conclusion that it is a company that combines both stability and growth potential.